Ronald-Peter Stoeferle argues that gold’s recent pullback is a consolidation inside a much larger secular bull market, not a top. He says the next leg higher should be driven by central bank behavior, persistent inflation/stagflation risks, institutional adoption, and broader remonetization of gold, with a long-run target of US$8,900 by decade-end if inflation stays sticky.
Watch on YouTube ›Get the market thesis, key claims, assets, contradictions, and follow-up questions from any financial video — then unlock a version personalized to your portfolio, watchlist, and favorite speakers.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle frames the 20th edition of In Gold We Trust as both a backward-looking review of the last two decades and a forward-looking thesis that “the future of money lies in its past.” He says the report began in 2007 almost accidentally, after a first successful mining-stock investment in Osisko led him to write a small special report while working at a Vienna bank. Over time, he says he realized gold is not just about the metal itself but about the monetary system, history, central banking, inflation, debt, and opportunity cost. The report has grown into a large research operation, now published in multiple languages, and he presents it as a broader framework for understanding remonetization rather than just a gold commentary. His core market view is bullish on gold over the medium and long term, but not uniformly bullish in the very short term. …
Near term, gold looks more range-bound than explosive: weak seasonality, fewer immediate catalysts, and profit-taking risk argue for chop or modest softness before any breakout. The practical tactical zone he highlights is roughly 4,000–4,300 in gold, with miners more sentiment-sensitive than the metal itself.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is that sticky inflation, bond-market stress, and recurring reserve-diversification demand keep the larger uptrend intact. A sustained move higher would likely need stronger ETF/institutional buying, while a tougher Fed or stronger dollar could delay the next leg.
Structurally, he sees gold re-entering the monetary system by function as a neutral reserve and hedge asset, especially after reserve-freeze episodes changed sovereign behavior. The long-run regime implication is higher demand for gold and related real assets in a world of debt, mistrust, and financial repression risk.
The future of money lies in its past, meaning gold should be understood as part of a broader monetary-cycle revaluation rather than a simple commodity cycle.
This is the central thesis of the report and the interview.
The recent decline in gold is a consolidation, not a trend break, after a very strong prior move.
He repeatedly describes the drawdown as temporary and liquidity-driven rather than the end of the bull market.
Gold’s next meaningful buying zone is around 4,000 to 4,300, while silver is already near an attractive zone around 70.
He gives explicit tactical price ranges for both metals.
Why did you launch the In Gold We Trust Report, and what has changed over the years?
Stoeferle says the first report began as a special report in 2007 after a mining stock investment sparked his interest in gold. Over time he realized the report is really about the monetary system, history, central banking, inflation, debt, and the future, and it has grown into a much larger team effort with multiple language editions and monthly chart books.
What does the theme "back to the monetary future" mean to you?
He explains that the phrase is a nod to Back to the Future and to the idea that understanding money requires looking back into history. His core thesis is that the future of money lies in its past, and that the market is in a monetary revaluation cycle rather than a normal gold cycle.
Why has gold been under pressure this year, especially during war, and what are the main takeaways from your six reasons?
He says the move is a consolidation, not a trend break, and argues gold is not a direct hedge against war but rather responds to the consequences of war such as debt, inflation, lower rates, and financial repression. He points to the prior huge run-up, profit-taking around the Iran war, higher yields, a stronger dollar, and a major shift in rate-cut expectations as key reasons for the pullback.
Unlock the full claims, asset map, scores, related transcripts, follow-up questions, and AI chat — shaped around your portfolio, watchlist, favorite speakers, and risks.
