Reuters carries a UN press briefing on the WMO’s El Niño update. WMO says El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, with about an 80% chance of emerging in June-August 2026 and roughly 90% odds by September-December, with the event likely moderate and possibly strong. The speakers stress that El Niño can amplify heat, rainfall, drought, floods, and wildfire risk, but its effects vary by region and depend heavily on pre-existing conditions and other climate drivers.
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This briefing is centered on the World Meteorological Organization’s latest El Niño update and the practical implications for weather, climate, and disaster preparedness. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo says the science now indicates El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are likely to influence global weather patterns in the months ahead. The headline forecast she gives is an 80% probability of El Niño forming between June and August 2026, rising to about 90% through September-December. She adds that most models point to at least a moderate event, with the possibility of a strong one, but stresses that uncertainty remains because forecast models are still spread out. A major theme is that El Niño is not treated as a standalone event but as an amplifier layered onto an already warming climate. …
The immediate setup is a rising-probability El Niño that could sharpen weather volatility over the next few months, so the tactical risk is underestimating near-term heat, rainfall, and flood shocks. The practical move is preparedness now, because WMO sees the largest forecast uncertainty in the current window.
Over the next several months, the likely path is a moderate El Niño that may strengthen, with regional climate outlooks determining how severe local impacts become. The view would change if model consensus fails to improve or if the event peaks weaker than expected.
The structural implication is that El Niño must be treated as part of a hotter, more extreme climate regime rather than a one-off weather anomaly. The lasting thesis is that early warning systems and anticipatory finance will become core resilience infrastructure.
El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns worldwide in the coming months.
Core forecast statement from the WMO briefing.
WMO estimates an 80% chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, rising to about 90% through September-December.
Specific probability call and timing window.
Most forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate, with a possibility of becoming strong.
WMO’s intensity range and caution.
Is the installation of early warning systems going well, and is the dearth of new money from the US and others having an impact on progress?
The Secretary General said there has been significant progress on the Early Warnings for All initiative since its 2022 launch, with 128 countries (roughly 60% of world met services) now reporting early warning systems in place. However, she acknowledged that climate finance is not at its peak and that more resource mobilization is needed, and that implementation itself remains a challenge.
How much has preparation for El Niño improved in Latin America after so many years of experiencing it, and what is still lacking in the region to be fully prepared?
The Secretary General said that science has improved a lot since the early days of El Niño and that Latin America is more and more prepared, particularly in countries like Ecuador and Peru. However, she noted that extreme events are becoming more extreme and sometimes fall outside of statistics, making it very difficult to be fully prepared. She emphasized that the Early Warnings for All initiative connects well with this challenge, especially as El Niño adds heat on top of a warming climate.
In addition to the consequences of climate change in terms of extreme events, should we now add the consequences of El Niño for the next few months or next year?
Yes — there is a global trend of more extreme events driven by climate change, and on top of that El Niño and other natural climate oscillations add their own signal. The combination is why global coordination, regional work, and national authorities are all needed to inform populations about specific impacts.
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