Gareth Soloway says the market is set up for a tactical bounce, helped by falling oil and easing fear, but he ultimately expects that rebound to fail and potentially form a larger bearish reversal in the S&P 500. He is near-term bullish on equities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver, bearish on oil, and structurally bullish on gold and silver over the long run.
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Gareth Soloway opens by identifying himself as the chief market strategist at Verified Investing and frames the session as a chart-driven trading game plan. He says futures are up after news of positive developments in the US-Iran conflict, and he points to S&P futures reacting sharply after the close, with the overnight move holding between the breakout high and the first pullback low. He interprets this as a sign that the market has found a tradable short-term range. He argues that the S&P 500 is setting up for more than a one- or two-day bounce, likely a one- to two-week choppy rally. He supports this with a confluence of technical factors: a prior support zone, a trend line that has already produced bounces, and a Fibonacci retracement from the April 2025 low to the all-time high, where price tagged the 23.6% retracement. …
Tactically, the tape looks supportive for a bounce in equities, metals, and crypto as oil breaks down and fear eases. The immediate risk is chasing the rebound into resistance if the market only produces a brief relief rally.
Over the next several weeks, the base case is a choppy rebound that fades into a larger rollover if the head-and-shoulders structure keeps developing. Validation would come from continued weakness in oil, softer yields, and failed follow-through above the key retracement zone; invalidation would be a strong reclaim of prior highs.
Structurally, he sees the regime as bullish for hard assets because debt expansion and monetary debasement should support gold and silver over time. The broader implication is that narrative-driven market moves are secondary to a persistent chart-led cycle of liquidity, inflation pressure, and rotation.
Positive developments in the US-Iran situation triggered an overnight surge in futures and a collapse in oil after the close.
He attributes the move to news breaking after the market closed.
The S&P futures move created a short-term resistance level at the breakout high and support at the first pullback low.
He repeatedly describes the overnight high as resistance and the underbelly as support.
The S&P 500 is likely to see a one- to two-week bounce, but the rally should become choppy and then roll over.
This is his core market call for the near to medium term.
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