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California’s ‘Jungle Primary’ election results: who’s in, who’s out, who’s still in the running

Channel: MS NOW Published: 2026-06-03 05:40
MS NOW

MS NOW’s segment frames California’s election night as unusually volatile: Karen Bass advances to November, while Republican reality-TV figure Spencer Pratt is still in contention for the second spot in Los Angeles’ mayoral race. The discussion argues that Pratt’s showing reflects voter anger over post-fire rebuilding and broader anti-establishment sentiment. The second half widens out to other states, emphasizing that early vote counts tend to favor Republicans in mail-in states like California, while Democrats may later gain ground as ballots are counted.

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Detailed summary

This segment is a political update rather than a market call, centered on the early results from California’s “jungle primary” and a handful of other state races. The core takeaway is that Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is already confirmed for the November runoff, but the second slot remains unsettled, with Republican candidate and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt surprisingly in contention. Daniela Diaz characterizes that result as a sign of anti-incumbent anger in Los Angeles, especially tied to frustration over rebuilding after the Palisades and other fires. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Karen Bass is the only confirmed November candidate in the Los Angeles mayoral race so far.
  2. Spencer Pratt’s unexpectedly strong showing is framed as a protest vote against city leadership and slow post-fire rebuilding.
  3. California’s vote-counting structure means early Republican leads may not hold once mail ballots are fully processed.
  4. Steve Hilton is leading early in the California governor’s race, but the result is far from settled.
  5. Democrats lacked a clear governor frontrunner after Eric Swalwell’s exit.
  6. Republican losses in Iowa are presented as a setback for Trump-endorsed candidates.
  7. The segment treats Democratic scandals and candidate weakness as a drag on what otherwise looks like favorable national political weather.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the headline risk is misreading early California returns before mail ballots are counted; any tactical read on Bass, Hilton, or Pratt should stay provisional. The only actionable setup is to watch whether the early GOP edge persists once the slow count fills in.

  • The immediate watch item is California’s slow count: the second Los Angeles mayoral slot and the governor’s race may shift as mail ballots arrive.
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  • Early Republican leads in California should be treated cautiously because in-person ballots are counted first and Democratic mail ballots later.
  • Spencer Pratt’s viability is a near-term story only if his current momentum holds through continued counting and media attention.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the key question is whether late-counted ballots and remaining contests validate a Democratic rebound or expose a real organizational problem. If candidate weakness and scandals continue, Democrats may enter November with more fragile positioning than expected.

  • Over the coming weeks, the key question is whether California’s late-counted ballots reverse the early Republican advantage or confirm a real GOP breakout.
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  • If Democrats fail to consolidate behind a clear governor candidate, the race could remain fragmented and politically damaging even if the final count shifts.
  • The Iowa and New Jersey results suggest the November map may depend heavily on candidate quality and intra-party alignment rather than national mood alone.
Long term

Structurally, the segment points to a political environment where outsider identity and anger can upend conventional assumptions even in heavily partisan states. It also suggests that slow-count election systems and weak candidate pipelines can matter as much as macro party branding over time.

  • The segment suggests a broader regime where celebrity, grievance, and anti-establishment identity can matter as much as traditional party branding.
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  • California is portrayed as structurally Democratic but still vulnerable to disruption when voters are angry about governance failures.
  • For Democrats, the lasting implication is that favorable terrain does not guarantee durable control if scandals and weak candidates persist.
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Key claims (7)

0:05
NEUTRAL California politics Karen Bass

Karen Bass is the only candidate from her race confirmed to advance to the November election so far.

The segment explicitly says Bass will be on the ballot this fall and is the only confirmed November candidate from her race.

3:50
BULLISH anti-incumbent politics Spencer Pratt

Spencer Pratt’s strong showing reflects voter anger over the city’s failures and post-fire rebuilding.

Diaz links Pratt’s support to frustration about the Palisades fires and the role of the mayor.

4:30
NEUTRAL vote counting California election results

California’s mail-in system means early Republican leads can be misleading because Democratic ballots are counted later.

Diaz explains the vote-counting structure and why Republicans tend to lead early.

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Assets discussed (13)

Karen Bass
NEUTRAL other

Described as advancing to November and seeking reelection; this is political coverage rather than a tradable asset.

Spencer Pratt
BULLISH other

Presented as unexpectedly strong in the mayoral race and still in contention for November.

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Speakers

HOST Allie GUEST Daniela Diaz

Interview (3 Q&A)

2:40
LA mayoral race analysis

What does Spencer Pratt possibly making it into the top two as an active challenger to Karen Bass tell you about California politics and LA politics in this moment where they're still trying to rebuild from the fires?

Daniela Diaz says it's a shocking development because California is seen as one of the bluest states in the country, yet a reality TV star is positioning himself as an outsider channeling voter anger over the fires and the mayor's response. She draws parallels to Trump in 2015, noting Pratt is channeling anger Angelenos feel about rebuilding and the mayor's role in that.

7:15
big picture analysis

Taking all the results in totality — Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, the Feenstra loss — what do you see in the bigger picture?

Daniela Diaz focuses on Iowa as a potential Senate flip opportunity for Democrats. Josh Turek's win was a big win for Chuck Schumer over a more progressive candidate, and Trump's endorsed candidate Feenstra lost that primary. She thinks Iowa could attract a lot of attention in the general election because things didn't go as predicted for Republicans there.

9:00
Democratic morale

How do the Democrats you're talking to feel right now, given the good atmospherics but also scandals like Bram Platner in Maine and Jill Biden relitigating 2024?

Daniela Diaz says Democrats don't feel any of this is helping. She notes that Platner's scandal completely took over the state of Maine and he had to go to D.C. to answer questions from other Democrats. She says the bigger question is whether Democrats can pull through — a year ago they were optimistic about winning the House majority, but now it doesn't seem like they'll be able to win it.

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The segment treats Spencer Pratt’s competitiveness as a meaningful political signal, but it is unclear whether this is durable voter support or a temporary novelty effect.
  • The early Republican leads in California are interpreted as notable, but the discussion also admits that the state’s counting process makes those leads highly provisional.
  • The claim that Pratt is channeling broad citywide anger may be overstated without clearer evidence beyond early returns and anecdotal reaction.
  • The idea that Trump’s endorsement was the 'gold standard' is undercut by the Feenstra result, but the sample is too narrow to make a broad conclusion from one primary.

Topics

California primary resultsLos Angeles mayoral raceSpencer PrattCalifornia governor’s raceSteve Hiltonvote counting and mail ballotsIowa primary resultsNew Jersey primaryNew Mexico governor raceDemocratic candidate weakness

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