Matteo Greco of Fineqia says crypto market volatility should stay elevated over the coming months as central banks slow rate cuts, some rates may rise, oil remains high, and AI-led equity strength may be masking broader weakness. He argues crypto has already decoupled from traditional markets: equities, especially the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, hit new highs while crypto stayed weak, with Bitcoin/ETPs and Ethereum underperforming and altcoins showing a short-lived May bounce.
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Matteo Greco, senior associate at Fineqia International, argues that crypto is entering a period of sustained volatility and that the market is behaving differently from traditional equities. His core thesis is that the next few months should remain choppy, with direction hard to predict, because multiple macro and cross-asset forces are pulling in different directions. He explicitly says it is “always pretty tough to say which direction,” but sees “a lot of factors… playing towards increase volatility.” A major part of his reasoning is the widening divergence between crypto and traditional financial markets. …
Tactically, crypto looks vulnerable to continued whipsawing, with no clear near-term catalyst strong enough to anchor a sustained move. If equity leadership or macro expectations shift abruptly, crypto could see outsized reactions.
Over the next few months, the base case is a volatile range with crypto trying to reprice against macro tightening risk and uneven institutional flows. Confirmation would come from sustained flow improvement or a broader easing in rates/oil pressures; otherwise the decoupling can persist.
Structurally, the interview implies crypto is becoming less dependent on broad equity beta and more on its own liquidity and policy drivers. That makes the asset class more idiosyncratic, but also more exposed when macro support weakens.
Crypto volatility is likely to remain strong over the coming months.
Direct opening thesis and closing forecast.
Crypto and traditional financial markets have diverged sharply in the last few months.
He contrasts new highs in equities with crypto weakness since Q4.
The AI subsector is driving much of the stock market strength and breaking the usual correlation with crypto.
He says index strength is concentrated in AI names and that this is distorting cross-market relationships.
What are you seeing in the financial markets themselves and where crypto is based?
Matteo says the crypto market and traditional financial markets have shown strongly different behavior recently. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, crypto has been in a negative price action from Q4 onward. This divergence is unusual compared to the last 2-3 years, especially after US spot ETF approvals brought institutional money into crypto.
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