Gareth Soloway argues that a sudden oil collapse and S&P bounce were triggered by Trump signaling progress with Iran, and he expects the bounce to fade. He remains bearish on the broader market, dollar, oil, and gold/silver over the medium term, while trading short-term oversold bounces in selected names.
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Gareth Soloway opens by framing himself as a technical trader who uses charts over narratives, then says he shorted oil on Friday before the morning collapse. He ties the drop to a bearish oil chart setup plus the idea that Trump wants lower oil ahead of midterms, lower fuel prices, and a stronger stock market; he also says the market reacted to Trump’s Truth Social post about “really good talks with Iran.” He walks through oil’s intraday move from roughly 101.5 down below 85 and says he took profit on the short because the move was already extreme. He says the oil drop should continue over time, but not in a straight line. He dismisses Iran’s denial of talks as less important than the market reaction to Trump’s messaging. He then says the S&P futures are bouncing sharply after Friday’s selloff, and that he had warned members to expect a bounce because the market was at major support. …
Near term, the setup favors a reflex bounce in equities and other oversold assets after the oil shock, but that bounce looks tactical and vulnerable to fading if headlines stabilize or economic data softens again. Oil’s plunge and the market rebound are tradable, but both remain headline-sensitive and prone to sharp reversals.
Over the next several weeks to months, the base case is a weaker market after the current squeeze, with oil, the dollar, and risk assets still under pressure unless the bounce broadens into a sustained trend shift. Confirmation would come from continued failure at resistance and renewed macro deterioration; invalidation would require a durable improvement in trend and policy tone.
Structurally, the transcript argues that the regime remains bearish for risk assets and supportive of a chart-driven, policy-sensitive trading style. The lasting implication is that energy, rates, and equity direction are tightly linked to government signaling and macro constraints, so traders should expect recurring headline-driven regime shifts rather than clean one-way trends.
Oil’s intraday collapse was triggered by a combination of a bearish technical setup and Trump’s Truth Social message about talks with Iran.
He directly links the move to both chart structure and the headline catalyst.
The president wants oil lower because midterms are coming, lower oil helps the market, and higher oil helps Iran.
This is the speaker’s political explanation for why oil was pressured.
The S&P bounce is a tactical rebound from major support and should not be read as a trend reversal.
He explicitly says the market was at support and that a bounce is expected before another leg down.
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