Mathieu Plane (OFCE) argues that the Middle East conflict is turning an already weak French economy into a recession-risk scenario, mainly through an energy-price shock. He distinguishes a manageable case, where oil stays near 100 dollars and France grows around 0.5%, from a severe case with oil at 120 dollars and a more durable inflation shock that could push France into a technical recession, likely even by the second quarter.
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Mathieu Plane, deputy director of analysis and forecasting at the OFCE, says the OECD’s new forecasts confirm that the slowdown was already underway before the Iran/Middle East conflict, but that the conflict has worsened the outlook materially. He frames the situation around two scenarios: a “normal” one in which the OECD’s inflation assumptions remain around 4% for the G20/OECD area and a more severe one where the conflict persists, oil rises to 120 dollars, and the shock becomes durable rather than transitory. His core thesis is that the difference between a temporary energy-price shock and a lasting one is decisive. In the temporary case, the impact is painful but manageable: lower purchasing power, weaker consumption, squeezed margins, and a France growth rate near 0.5% for the year based on current data. …
Near term, the actionable setup is the second-quarter French data and oil stabilization versus escalation. If energy prices remain elevated and activity weakens again, the technical recession call becomes the dominant market risk for France and nearby Europe.
Over the next several weeks or months, the base case is sluggish French growth with upside limited unless the energy shock proves transitory. Confirmation would come from easing oil and improving confidence; if not, stagnation or mild recession becomes the more likely path.
Structurally, the segment argues that Europe’s growth regime is highly exposed to geopolitical energy shocks and has limited fiscal buffer when they hit. If those shocks become durable, the lasting implication is a weaker inflation-growth mix and chronically tighter policy conditions.
The world economy is now threatened by recession according to the OECD forecasts.
The opening statement frames the OECD as warning of recession risk in the world economy.
The slowdown was already underway before the Iran/Middle East war began.
He says the OECD confirms the slowdown predated the conflict.
The OECD's 4% inflation figure applies to the normal scenario, not the severe one.
He explicitly distinguishes the two scenarios and ties 4% to the normal case.
Quel est le scénario de l'OCDE pour l'inflation cette année dans les pays du G20 ?
Mathieu confirme que le chiffre de 4% d'inflation dans les pays du G20 correspond au scénario normal de l'OCDE, pas au scénario dur. Il précise que c'est au niveau des pays de l'OCDE et du G20, et que la France a une inflation un peu plus faible que la plupart des autres pays.
Dans le scénario dur de l'OCDE, quels pays tombent en récession ?
Mathieu indique que dans le scénario dur (pétrole à 120 dollars, conflit qui perdure), des pays d'Asie et des pays d'Europe de l'Est tombent en récession. Il explique que les pays d'Asie subissent un choc différent (problèmes d'approvisionnement/effets quantité) tandis que l'Europe subit surtout un choc de prix. Il ajoute que la France et l'Allemagne sont clairement 'entre deux' et que des récessions en zone euro ne peuvent être écartées.
La France tombe-t-elle en récession ?
Mathieu répond que même sans le scénario dur, la question de la récession se pose en France. Le premier trimestre était à -0,1% révisé, donc il suffit d'un -0,1% au deuxième trimestre pour être officiellement en récession technique. Il précise qu'au premier trimestre la France a calé plus vite que les autres pays qui étaient à zéro ou plus.
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