Anas Alhajji argues that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is not a short-lived headline but a persistent market regime shift. He says the U.S. is not seriously working to fully reopen the strait, that the current disruption will not be fully resolved before the U.S. election, and that markets are already adapting through higher inventories, rerouted flows, and more investment in solar, wind, and battery storage.
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This interview centers on Anas Alhajji’s view that the Hormuz disruption has become a durable feature of the energy market rather than a temporary geopolitical shock. His core thesis is that the world is now living with a permanent “shadow” over the Strait of Hormuz: even if a formal deal is reached, the logistical and psychological effects will linger, and any future rumor or threat can move oil and product markets instantly. He repeatedly says the Trump administration is not serious about fully solving the problem, and that the situation will not be fully resolved before the U.S. election. A major part of his argument is that the market is reacting rationally to the risk. He cites tankers returning to Kharg Island to load, Chinese crude import cuts, and strategic use of inventories as signs that buyers and sellers are adapting to the probability of recurring closures or disruptions. …
Near term, the setup is headline-driven and fragile: product prices, shipping flows, and oil sentiment can react sharply to any new rumor or strike report. Tactical positioning should assume continued volatility and avoid overconfidence in a quick normalization.
Over the next few weeks and months, the base case is partial adaptation rather than a clean reset: rerouting, inventory use, and demand adjustment will keep offsetting supply shocks, but the risk premium should persist. The key question is whether logistics and product markets stabilize enough to show that the disruption is being absorbed.
Structurally, the transcript argues that Hormuz has crossed from a one-off chokepoint into a permanent strategic lever. That implies a lasting regime of higher energy-security spending, more storage, and more diversification away from vulnerable maritime routes.
The Trump administration is not serious about fully solving the Strait of Hormuz problem.
He states this directly and repeats it as a main point.
The Hormuz situation will not be fully resolved before the U.S. election.
He argues logistical timelines alone make a full resolution impossible by then.
The market should expect recurring fears of Hormuz closure even after any agreement.
He says any future grievance can trigger threats or rumors that instantly rattle markets.
Is the global economy doing very well too?
Not much, but at least there are no storms in Texas like last time. Anas does not elaborate further on the global economy.
What is your analysis on the state of things right now — the Strait of Hormuz being partially closed, ships being struck, and the peace deal being on shaky ground — as well as the state of the global economy?
Anas advises staying away from minute-by-minute news due to fake and contradicting news (e.g. Iran claimed they hit a tanker in Bahrain but it was later found safe). He argues the Trump administration is not serious about opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the world is adapting by investing in solar, wind, and battery storage.
Why do you think the US would let a ship pass through the blockade if it paid off Iranian officials?
Anas says the ship may have nothing to do with Iran in the first place but was blocked supposedly by Iranians. There are official payments and nonofficial payments — the US does not know about the corruption payments. A Greek shipper contacts an Iraqi official connected with lower-level IRGC, negotiates a fee (e.g. $10 million), the ship passes the US blockade, and the government does not see a penny.
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