Christopher Muan is broadly bullish on precious metals over the long run, but he thinks gold, silver, and miners are in a tactical correction phase with more downside possible before the next major leg higher. He is also bullish on equities for now, despite warning that a correction in tech, a firmer dollar, and higher rates could eventually trigger broader risk-off pressure.
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Christopher Muan’s core view is that gold and silver remain in a long-term bull market, but the current setup is messy, overextended, and still vulnerable to a further flush before a larger upside advance resumes. He says the metals complex looks like it has already completed the kind of euphoric run that tends to retrace, and he repeatedly frames the recent pullback as healthy but incomplete. In his view, gold could first fall toward about $4,100 and eventually down near $3,600, while silver could revisit roughly $62 and then possibly $40 if the correction deepens. He emphasizes that he is not calling an end to the bull market, just a painful reset inside it. His technical case rests mainly on Fibonacci retracements, measured moves, and long-term trend structure. …
Near term, the actionable risk is that a firmer dollar and fading sentiment push gold, silver, and miners lower before any new leg up. He would stay cautious on metals until price confirms a base or breakout, while equities still look supported by tech momentum.
Over the next few weeks to months, the base case is a messy correction or sideways consolidation in precious metals, followed by a better setup for a new advance if the dollar stalls or reverses. Equities can stay strong in the meantime, but a tech-led pullback would likely be the first sign that the broader risk-on phase is maturing.
Structurally, he thinks precious metals are in a secular bull market and that the current weakness is just a mid-cycle reset. The lasting regime call is trend-following over conviction: own the strongest tape, keep flexibility, and expect long periods of dormancy even in major bull themes.
Gold is still in a long-term bullish structure, but the current move is correcting after an euphoric run.
He says the broader uptrend remains intact, but the recent selloff is healthy and likely incomplete.
Gold could first fall toward about $4,100 and then potentially unwind to around $3,600.
He presents two downside technical targets based on the most recent leg lower and a Fibonacci/measured-move framework.
Silver has a similar correction pattern and could revisit the March low near $62, with a deeper target around $40.
He maps silver’s chart as an ABC correction with a lower measured move target if weakness continues.
Were there any big surprises in gold's performance this year, or does it make sense from a technical perspective?
Christopher says gold is doing what they discussed in January. He expected a significant pullback after a euphoric overexcited mode, and that's what happened. He sees the pullback as a healthy correction within a still-bullish long-term picture, though he warns of more potential downside to around $3,600.
What signals might you be looking for to give an indication of which direction gold will take in the short term, especially looking at summer?
Christopher points to seasonality (sell in May through October), the dollar chart which is forming a bullish bull flag pattern and could push to $100, equities correlation, and bearish sentiment in precious metals. If the dollar breaks out, gold will likely see a larger selloff.
What is that low level looking like when it comes to silver?
Christopher says silver has a slightly different chart pattern than gold. It should come back down to March lows around $62 per ounce, then to $40 per ounce. This mirrors gold's correction back to where it went parabolic. He notes the pattern is a bullish ABC correction long-term, and if silver turns up now it points to $175 per ounce.
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