David Nicholas argues gold and silver remain attractive despite a pullback, but near-term pricing is being driven less by classic safe-haven demand and more by the dollar, oil, rate-cut expectations, and central-bank buying. He sees continued upside in miners, expects the Fed to stay cautious, and recommends diversification into defense, nuclear, Treasuries, and critical-mineral themes.
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Charlotte McCloud interviews David Nicholas, CEO of AXS Investments and president of Nicholas Wealth Management, about gold, silver, the Fed, oil, inflation, and defensive portfolio themes. Nicholas says gold has already had a strong run, but recent pullbacks in gold and silver may create an entry point. In his view, precious metals are being driven mainly by the dollar, rate expectations, fiscal stress, geopolitical risk, and especially central-bank buying rather than just inflation. On the Iran war and the oil spike, he argues the move in gold is constrained because rising oil raises inflation expectations and reduces the odds of Fed rate cuts, which tends to support the dollar and pressure gold. He thinks a quick resolution could push oil back into the 70s, while a prolonged conflict could keep oil in a $90-$110 range for months. …
Tactically, the setup is driven by oil and Fed expectations: if crude stays hot, gold can remain choppy, while any de-escalation could quickly improve precious-metals sentiment. Short-duration Treasuries and selective defense/commodity hedges look like the cleaner near-term positioning.
Over the next few months, the base case is a range-bound but supported gold market, with miners helped if spot prices stay well above their cost bases. The main confirm/deny variable is whether inflation and growth data force the Fed toward patience or reopen the door to cuts.
Structurally, he is describing a world where debt, deficits, and central-bank reserve behavior keep gold relevant as a long-run store of value. He also sees defense and critical minerals as enduring national-security themes that should remain investable beyond the current headline cycle.
Gold has had an incredible run over the last year but recent pullbacks may be a good entry point.
He directly says gold has run hard and that investors may now have a good entry spot after the pullback.
Gold is being driven mainly by the dollar and central-bank buying rather than only inflation.
He distinguishes gold's drivers from inflation and emphasizes debasement-dollar trade plus official-sector demand.
The Iran conflict matters for gold mainly through oil, inflation expectations, and reduced odds of Fed cuts.
He explicitly links the conflict to oil, inflation, and rate-cut expectations as the mechanism for gold weakness or strength.
When you're looking at gold, where do you see it in the cycle overall right now?
Gold has had an incredible run but has pulled back from its highs. It's being driven by rates, the dollar, inflation expectations, geopolitics, and fiscal stress. Gold is trading mainly on two things: the dollar (debasement trade) and safe-haven demand from geopolitical worries and central bank buying. Central banks now own more gold than Treasuries, which is a major demand driver.
Why is gold going down when the Iran war is breaking out, since people are supposed to flock to gold in times of crisis?
The oil shock complicates the gold trade. War is normally bullish for gold, but the conflict is driving an inflationary narrative — when oil spikes, inflation expectations rise and rate cut expectations diminish, which means a stronger dollar and weakness in gold. If oil comes back down and rate cut expectations return, gold should do well.
What is your take on what's coming for oil prices?
The US is a net exporter and WTI trades at a discount to overseas crude, but higher oil still impacts the US. The futures curve suggests oil for longer, around $100/barrel. If there's a quick resolution, oil could come back to the $70s; if the conflict drags on 6-8 months, oil stays sticky between $90-$110/barrel.
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