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4 Free Tools That Expose Mining Promoter Lies (an Engineer's Guide)

Channel: Resource Talks Published: 2026-06-05 13:27
Resource Talks

Ken Kusling argues mining investors can audit early-stage projects quickly with free engineering tools, especially by focusing on rock value/NSR rather than misleading metal equivalents. He shows how to detect grade smearing, test simple cash flow assumptions, and spot when study inputs are aggressive versus grounded in recent market pricing.

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Detailed summary

This interview is a practical, engineer-driven guide to mining due diligence. The core thesis is that non-engineers can still evaluate junior mining claims by using simple formulas and a few free calculators, with the most important starting point being rock value / NSR rock value rather than flashy gold-equivalent or copper-equivalent grades. Ken Kusling repeatedly emphasizes that the point is not to build a full mine model, but to quickly answer basic questions: is the material actually valuable enough to process, is the geometry mineable, and are the economics being presented in a way that matches the underlying geology and recovery assumptions? Kusling explains that he built the tools from decades of due diligence work on early-stage projects, acquisitions, and feasibility studies. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Rock value / NSR is presented as the most practical first-pass valuation tool for polymetallic deposits.
  2. Equivalent grades can be misleading, especially when commodity price assumptions change.
  3. Smearing analysis helps distinguish true bulk-tonnage potential from narrow high-grade veins.
  4. Quick cash flow screens are useful, but only as sensitivity tools, not substitutes for studies.
  5. Company timelines are not driven only by permitting; financing and execution often matter more.
  6. Study metal prices should be judged against recent averages and peer behavior, not headlines alone.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Near term, the actionable edge is in screening drill releases and studies for misleading interval presentation, overly rosy recoveries, and weak sensitivity discipline. The highest-risk setup is a headline-rich project whose economics only work if commodity prices stay elevated and dilution stays low.

  • For an investor reading a new drill release, the immediate task is to check whether the headline interval is being smeared across waste and whether the residual interval still looks mineable.
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  • Use the rock value calculator or a simple spreadsheet first; compare NSR against processing plus G&A to see if the rock clears the cost bar.
  • Be skeptical of headline NPV/IRR/payback numbers unless you can test them against different metal prices, recoveries, and strip ratios.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the better projects should be those whose rock values remain comfortably above cutoff grade after realistic recovery and cost assumptions. The market will likely keep rewarding credible technical de-risking, while projects that rely on aggressive assumptions should fade once sensitivity tests or follow-up drilling expose them.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, the more useful read is whether the project can survive a realistic sensitivity test across multiple variables at once: metal prices, recovery, dilution, strip ratio, and capex.
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  • If the average rock value sits several times above cutoff grade, the project has more room for error; if the margin is thin, small changes can break the case.
  • A credible development story should show coherent progression through milestones rather than endless promotional news flow.
Long term

Structurally, the video argues that mining value is governed by engineering reality, not promotional framing, and that eventually the market reprices projects toward that reality. For investors, the durable advantage is learning to read technical disclosures as an engineer would: geometry, recoverable metal, cost, and time to build.

  • The structural message is that junior mining valuation should be anchored in engineering reality, not promotional language or one-line equivalent grades.
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  • Good projects eventually converge toward intrinsic value, but only after enough drilling, metallurgy, and engineering remove ambiguity.
  • The tools imply a durable framework for mining due diligence: understand geometry, recoverable value, costs, and sensitivity before trusting any market narrative.
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Key claims (7)

NEUTRAL mining due diligence junior mining projects

Rock value / NSR rock value is the most useful first-pass screen for early-stage projects.

He explicitly says it tells him everything he needs to know at the start and recommends people learn it first.

BEARISH valuation methodology gold

Equivalent grades can be misleading because changing the gold price can make the equivalent grade rise even when the commodity price falls.

He uses this as the main reason he prefers NSR over equivalent metrics.

BEARISH geology interpretation mining drill intervals

Smearing a drill interval can make a narrow high-grade vein look like a bulk-tonnage open-pit deposit.

He explains how the headline interval can hide a low-grade remainder and alter mining-method interpretation.

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Speakers

INTERVIEWER Unnamed host/interviewer GUEST Ken Kusling

Interview (22 Q&A)

calculator choice

Which calculator is most useful for a non-technical junior mining speculator?

He says the most valuable starting point is the rock value calculator, especially in-situ rock value and recovered rock value, sometimes called NSR rock value. He recommends getting familiar with that because it quickly tells him what he needs to know about a project at an early stage.

rock value

Why should someone learn to use rock value instead of equivalents?

He says rock value is especially useful for polymetallic deposits because it shows what the rock is worth in a more intuitive way than gold or copper equivalents. He dislikes equivalents because they can behave counterintuitively and hide what is actually driving value.

equivalents risk

What is the risk if you rely on equivalent grades instead of rock value?

He says you may miss where the value is actually coming from across multiple metals, and you may not know which metals are really driving the economics. Rock value makes it easier to see which metals matter and how price changes affect the project.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that lowering gold price can make equivalent grade rise is mathematically possible in some formulations, but the transcript does not show the exact formula or whether all equivalent metrics behave that way.
  • Kusling suggests companies do not smear intervals maliciously, yet the same practice can still have a strong promotional effect; the line between innocent reporting and selective framing remains somewhat subjective.
  • He implies timeline delays are often company-driven rather than permitting-driven, but the evidence is anecdotal and project-specific rather than a broad dataset.
  • The Ortrend argument that using prices near a 3-year average is broadly fine may understate how quickly study assumptions can become stale in a volatile commodity cycle.

Topics

rock valueNSR valuationmetal equivalentsgrade smearingcash flow modelingNPV IRR paybackpermitting timelinesstudy price assumptionspolymetallic depositsjunior mining due diligence

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