Gareth Soloway says the Iran/US standoff is lifting oil and creating a near-term pullback risk for stocks, but not yet a full market crash because traders expect more negotiations and may be pricing a Trump ‘taco’ retreat. He remains bearish semiconductors, bullish short-term on beaten-down software names, mildly cautious on gold, constructive on natural gas and still broadly bullish on Bitcoin above key support.
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Gareth Soloway opens by saying the US-Iran talks failed, escalation risk remains, and Trump has said the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, which he frames as a move to cut off Iran’s funding. He argues the stock market is only selling off modestly because futures were initially down more than 1%, but then rebounded on talk of possible renewed negotiations and because traders expect Trump may not follow through fully ('the taco factor'). He spends most of the video on charts. He says S&P futures were gapping down into a resistance zone, with a key downside trigger if the market loses 6740 on a daily close, which could lead to a gap fill toward 6615 and possibly a retest of prior lows. He repeatedly stresses that technicals, not headlines, should guide the next move. …
Near term, the setup is tactically fragile: oil strength can keep pressuring equities, and a break of key S&P support would likely extend the selloff. Software looks like the cleaner bounce trade right now, while semis remain the main short.
Over the next several weeks, the market likely oscillates between headline-driven spikes in oil and technical mean reversion in beaten-down growth sectors. Confirmation of the bearish semis view would come from follow-through weakness, while a softer oil path could allow equities and software to stabilize.
Structurally, he is arguing for a regime where semiconductors may have exhausted an extended uptrend, the dollar weakens over time, and energy/energy-adjacent assets gain importance. The longer-term implication is that technical extremes and energy shocks may matter more than headline narratives in setting the next major market trend.
US-Iran negotiations failed and escalation risk remains despite the ceasefire technically still being in place.
He explicitly says the talks failed to reach compromise or truce and there is still risk of escalation.
The market is not crashing because traders expect renewed negotiations and may be pricing a Trump retreat.
He says the market rallied off the lows on news of possible future talks and because of the 'taco factor'.
S&P futures are in a resistance zone and could gap-fill lower if 6740 breaks on a daily close.
He cites resistance and a specific downside trigger with a gap fill target.
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