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The Next Stock Market Crash Starts Here [it’s IN the SpaceX IPO]

Channel: Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA Published: 2026-06-07 11:00
Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA

Joseph Hogue argues that the coming wave of giant private-company IPOs—especially SpaceX, then OpenAI and Anthropic—could become a liquidity shock that helps trigger a broader market selloff, mainly because new demand may be financed with record margin debt rather than fresh cash. He is not calling for an immediate crash, but for a mounting risk over the next few months, while also highlighting specific stocks to watch this week in cybersecurity, AI chips, Oracle’s earnings, and space names.

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Detailed summary

Joseph Hogue frames the video around a warning that the next major stock-market crash may start with the massive IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. His core thesis is that these deals will be so large that they absorb a huge amount of capital, and because investors do not want to sell their existing winners, they will increasingly finance participation with margin debt. In his view, that creates a fragile setup: record leverage, elevated valuations, and a market that is already “teetering,” which together could turn a routine drawdown into a more serious liquidation cycle. He uses SpaceX as the centerpiece. Hogue says it is coming this Friday, will be the largest IPO in history at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation, and could raise $75 billion. …

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Main takeaways

  1. SpaceX is presented as the first catalyst in a much larger liquidity and leverage story.
  2. Hogue’s main risk thesis is not an immediate crash, but a multi-month fragility built on record margin debt.
  3. He thinks investors will finance IPO demand with borrowed money rather than selling winners.
  4. He is not outright bearish on SpaceX or AI, but he thinks the market is crowded and vulnerable.
  5. He is repositioning some capital toward defensive sectors and away from maximum growth exposure.
  6. Cybersecurity remains one of his preferred AI-adjacent themes.
  7. Oracle, Broadcom, and Rocket Lab are his main stock-specific watchpoints this week.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the setup looks crowded and vulnerable: the SpaceX IPO, Oracle earnings, CPI, and a strong jobs backdrop could all add volatility, while any weakness in AI or space names may be magnified by leverage.

  • SpaceX IPO is framed as the immediate event to watch this Friday.
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  • He expects possible pressure in space-related names as investors raise cash for the IPO.
  • Oracle’s earnings this Wednesday are a near-term catalyst with an implied large options move.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks to months, the market likely stays supported until a catalyst exposes how much risk is financed on margin; if IPO demand is absorbed without stress, the crash thesis weakens, but if stocks wobble, forced selling could accelerate the move.

  • Over the next few months, he expects the IPO pipeline to compound leverage in the system rather than being absorbed cleanly by cash investors.
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  • He thinks the real test will be whether new money comes from portfolio sales or from additional borrowing, with the latter making the market more brittle.
  • A meaningful deterioration in large-cap tech or AI leaders could force margin-driven liquidation and intensify the drawdown.
Long term

Structurally, the video argues that mega-IPOs plus elevated leverage are a systemic fragility in a concentrated growth market. The durable implication is that diversification and low-leverage positioning matter more when index demand and speculative enthusiasm are driving price discovery.

  • His structural thesis is that record leverage plus giant private-market debuts create a recurring vulnerability in equities.
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  • He suggests the market’s concentration in growth and AI names has made defensive diversification more important.
  • He implies that margin debt is a regime risk: when the cycle turns, forced selling can matter more than fundamentals in the short run.
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Key claims (13)

0:20
BEARISH market liquidity and leverage SpaceX IPO

SpaceX’s IPO is the first major catalyst in a coming wave of mega-IPOs that could help trigger the next stock-market crash.

He repeatedly links SpaceX, then OpenAI and Anthropic, to the idea that a crash starts when these deals hit the market.

0:50
MIXED IPO scale and market liquidity SpaceX IPO

SpaceX is likely to be the largest IPO in history, with a $1.8 trillion valuation and $75 billion raised.

He presents these figures as the scale of the deal and uses them as the basis for his liquidity argument.

1:35
BULLISH index flows SpaceX IPO

IPO demand for SpaceX may support the stock because index-tracking ETFs will be forced buyers after inclusion in major indexes.

He argues that Russell 1000, NASDAQ 100, and eventually S&P 500 inclusion creates structural demand.

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Assets discussed (23)

SpaceX IPO
BULLISH stock

He says it will be the largest IPO in history and could create strong ETF demand, but also thinks it may be a crash catalyst because of leverage and capital absorption.

OpenAI IPO
MIXED stock

He treats it as part of the same mega-IPO wave that could strain liquidity, while acknowledging it may also attract powerful demand.

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Speakers

SPEAKER Joseph Hogue

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The causal link between mega-IPOs and a market crash is asserted more than demonstrated; the video assumes new IPO demand will mostly be financed by margin, but offers little hard evidence that this is the dominant funding source.
  • He treats record margin debt as inherently destabilizing, but does not fully separate rising leverage from rising household/portfolio wealth or discuss whether margin can stay elevated for long periods without a crash.
  • The SpaceX valuation and fundraising figures are presented as if settled, yet the transcript mixes specific numbers with speculative future IPO assumptions about OpenAI and Anthropic.
  • He says SpaceX could be bought by index ETFs after inclusion, which could support prices, but then still frames it as a crash catalyst without reconciling the offsetting demand more fully.
  • Some performance claims and shorthand references appear imprecise or sloppy, which weakens confidence in the precision of the setup.

Topics

SpaceX IPOOpenAI IPOAnthropic IPOmargin debtmarket crash riskcybersecurity stocksBroadcom earningsOracle earningsRocket Labinflation and rates

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