Andy Schectman argues that the Iran conflict and a rising oil shock will ultimately support gold and silver, even if paper prices are temporarily suppressed by managed markets, higher margins, and forced liquidation dynamics. He also says China’s expanding gold-backed settlement and vault network, plus accelerating physical withdrawals from COMEX/GLD, point to a long-term shift away from dollar and Treasury dominance.
Watch on YouTube ›Get the market thesis, key claims, assets, contradictions, and follow-up questions from any financial video — then unlock a version personalized to your portfolio, watchlist, and favorite speakers.
This is a long-form interview between Adam Taggart and precious-metals dealer Andy Schectman centered on gold, silver, war risk, China’s gold infrastructure, and physical-vs-paper market structure. Taggart opens by framing recent geopolitical escalation with Iran, surging oil, and the question of whether precious metals will catch a safety bid. Schectman says the immediate price reaction has been counterintuitive, but he sees that as consistent with “management of perception economics” and long-running efforts to keep gold and silver from signaling stress in the financial system. He argues that higher oil prices force countries to hold more dollars to pay for energy and then recycle those dollars into U.S. Treasuries, but that this process is now straining the bond market as confidence erodes. …
Near term, the trade looks tactically noisy: war risk, oil volatility, and margin changes can still knock precious metals around even if physical demand stays firm. If the conflict cools, expect attempts to dampen the paper price again, which may matter more for traders than for physical accumulators.
Over the next few months, the base case in his framework is that physical demand and delivery pressure keep tightening the market underneath any paper-price weakness. Confirmation would be continued exchange outflows and strong physical premiums; invalidation would be a genuine slowdown in bar demand or a sharp unwinding of the delivery trend.
Structurally, he sees a global reordering in which gold becomes a settlement asset inside a multi-currency, partially de-dollarized system. If that path continues, the long-run implication is lower Treasury dependence and a weaker monopoly for Western paper price discovery.
War tends to knock gold and silver down at first because the market is managed to avoid signaling systemic stress.
Schectman says this has happened in prior wars and frames it as perception management rather than natural price discovery.
Rising oil prices force global buyers to accumulate more dollars and recycle them into Treasuries, but that process is now straining confidence in the bond market.
He links oil, dollar demand, and Treasury recycling as the mechanism behind bond-market stress.
China is building a multi-jurisdiction gold settlement and vault system that makes gold immediately convertible for central banks.
He says Shanghai/Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Belt and Road vaults are part of a gold-dominated infrastructure outside SWIFT.
What are the war's implications, if any, for the prices of precious metals?
Andy explains that most would expect gold to take off immediately, but it gets knocked down into the war — a pattern he's seen since the Gulf War. He attributes this to management of perception economics (MOPE). He sees oil shocks straining the dollar system: nations need dollars to buy oil, recycle them into Treasuries, but rising oil and a strong dollar together are cracking confidence in the bond market. Ultimately he believes precious metals will move much higher as the system strains, but it may not happen immediately.
Will missile demand and war-related stockpiling push silver prices higher?
Andy says yes, arguing military use is a major driver of silver accumulation and that the metal is critical for missiles, hypersonics, AI infrastructure, and other digital systems. He also points to huge COMEX deliveries and withdrawals, plus government critical-mineral policy, as evidence of tight supply and possible official stockpiling.
Could the government have been accumulating silver in advance of a potential war with Iran?
He says he thinks the government has likely been behind the buying from the beginning, and he extends that suspicion to gold as well. He argues the scale of deliveries and withdrawals is not normal and suggests the Exchange Stabilization Fund may have been involved.
Unlock the full claims, asset map, scores, related transcripts, follow-up questions, and AI chat — shaped around your portfolio, watchlist, favorite speakers, and risks.
