Jeffrey Sachs argues that the Iran-Israel escalation is primarily driven by Israel, that the U.S. public is broadly opposed to joining the war, and that Trump is politically and institutionally too weak to force a ceasefire or control Netanyahu. He also says a Hormuz disruption could raise oil prices enough to trigger a meaningful global economic shock, and he extends the same anti-war framework to Ukraine, NATO, and the broader U.S. military-industrial complex.
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Jeffrey Sachs’s core thesis is blunt: the current Iran-Israel escalation is, in his view, largely an Israeli-driven war that the United States should not join, and Trump should publicly force a stop rather than validate a wider conflict. Sachs repeatedly frames the situation as a contest between a U.S. public that does not want another war and a political/security establishment that keeps pushing escalation. He says Israel wants the war with Iran to continue, while the U.S. and Iran both want it to stop; the key issue is whether Trump has the capacity to break with Israel and declare the war over. He supports that view with several layers of reasoning. Politically, he says Trump faces strong pressure from pro-Israel forces in his base, especially evangelical Christian Zionists, but also faces overwhelming public opposition to a war with Iran and to Israel’s conduct more broadly. …
Near term, the key setup is whether Israel retaliates again and whether Trump publicly reins it in; if U.S. involvement stays contained, the immediate market shock is mostly an energy-volatility trade rather than a full regime break. The biggest tactical risk is a sudden escalation that pushes oil and gasoline higher quickly.
Over the next few weeks and months, Sachs’s base case is de-escalation by U.S. restraint rather than a negotiated grand bargain, with oil and risk assets sensitive to whether Hormuz shipping normalizes. A sustained disruption would keep energy markets and inflation risks elevated, while a visible U.S. disengagement would reduce the pressure.
Longer term, Sachs sees the episode as another example of how U.S. foreign policy is shaped by the military-industrial complex and alliance politics more than by transparent public consent. The structural implication is a persistent geopolitical risk premium in energy and a durable distrust of interventionist narratives.
Israel wants the war against Iran to continue, while the U.S. and Iran want it to stop.
This is Sachs's framing of the strategic preferences in the conflict.
Trump should tell Israel to stop and avoid entering the war on Israel's behalf.
Sachs says this is the politically correct and economically necessary choice.
U.S. public opinion is strongly opposed to continuing the war and favors a two-state solution.
He cites broad survey-style sentiment and a 60/20 split against the war.
What are your thoughts on Iran's attack on Israel and Israel's likely retaliation?
Israel wants the war against Iran to continue, while the US and Iran want it to stop. Israel has undermined every ceasefire attempt. Trump called Netanyahu an 'effing crazy' and there is significant anti-Israel sentiment in senior reaches of the US government.
What about Trita Parsi's point that if Trump doesn't enter the war he'll be accused of abandoning Israel, but if he enters he validates Israel's veto on US war decisions?
Politically Trump should tell Israel to stop because the American public is overwhelmingly against the war against Iran (~60% to 20%) and wants a two-state solution. But Trump has a strong pro-Israel base including Christian Zionists. He faces November elections where his party is likely to lose the House, and if energy prices spike from war, that would end his presidency.
Given everything you've said and Trump's instincts, why can't Trump just force Israel to accept a genuine ceasefire in Lebanon, especially if the global economy looks like it's going to tank?
Sachs argues Trump cannot force a ceasefire because Trump is weak and incompetent, not strong. He says Trump cannot articulate a policy line, cannot lead public opinion, and communicates only via social media posts rather than presidential addresses explaining the American interest. A strong president could explain that Israel is egging the US into war and insist on ending it, but Trump lacks that capability.
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