Gareth Soloway argues the market rebound after Friday’s tech sell-off is only a first test, not a confirmation of a durable low. He says the key near-term question is whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can reclaim highs or instead produce lower highs/lower lows over the next one to two weeks, with yields, oil, and event risk like the SpaceX IPO and inflation data as important background.
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Gareth Soloway frames the session as a technical-analysis-led trading update centered on whether Friday’s violent sell-off in growth and AI names was just a shakeout or the start of a deeper break. His core thesis is cautious: the current bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and several AI-related stocks is expected after a sharp down day, but the charts have been damaged enough that the market now needs to prove itself by making a higher high. If it fails and instead rolls into a lower high and then a lower low, he thinks the next leg down could unfold over the coming week or two. He spends much of the video walking through chart structure rather than fundamentals. On the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, he points to broken trend lines and says the next signal is whether price can recover and exceed prior highs. …
Near term, the market is in a prove-it phase after a sharp tech washout: a quick recovery back through recent highs would neutralize the damage, while failure to do so keeps another leg lower on the table. Watch AI leaders, yields, and the SpaceX IPO for the next catalyst.
Over the next few weeks, the rebound is only durable if breadth improves and the index structure repairs into higher highs instead of topping out below prior peaks. If yields stay elevated and liquidity is absorbed by new issuance, the path of least resistance may remain choppy-to-lower.
The larger regime question is whether dip-buying and AI leadership still define the tape, or whether heavy issuance, higher rates, and weaker commodity/crypto internals are signaling a rotation away from the easy risk-on playbook. If the current support fails, the market may be entering a more selective and less forgiving technical regime.
The market bounce is real but still unconfirmed; the next one to two weeks will decide whether the uptrend resumes or a deeper correction begins.
He explicitly frames the key question as higher high versus lower high/lower low over the next 1-2 weeks.
AI stocks and buy-the-dip psychology are driving the rebound after Friday’s sell-off.
He says the rebound is led by the AI trade and supported by a buy-the-dip mentality.
The SpaceX IPO could pressure markets by absorbing liquidity and discouraging a sharp sell-off into the listing.
He argues large IPO supply can suck up money and institutions won't want markets dumping sharply into the event.
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