How Will The SpaceX IPO Impact Your Portfolio? with Jeremy Schwartz | Talking Markets

This was an interview centered on whether the SpaceX IPO is a froth signal, how to think about the AI trade, and what the latest market and macro setup means for portfolios. Jeremy Schwartz’s core view was that the market is still being powered by the AI earnings story, not simply speculation, and that SpaceX is not, by itself, a top signal. He said the market is balancing geopolitical worries in the Middle East and oil with a much more dominant tech/AI narrative, and that the AI trend remains in early phases even if some of the productivity benefits are not yet showing up in standard economic statistics. A major part of the discussion was valuation. Schwartz argued that the S&P 500 was around 22x earnings and tech around 27x, but that several mega-cap names were not obviously expensive when growth is considered. …

1. AI remains the dominant market engine, with earnings growth still concentrated in tech and compute demand still constrained.
2. Schwartz does not view the SpaceX IPO as a definitive top signal; he sees it as a large, exciting company coming to market with real capital needs.
3. He thinks valuation should be judged against growth and profitability, which is why he is comfortable calling Nvidia a value stock in his framework.
4. Tesla is the most problematic of the Mag 7 in his view because growth has slowed and profitability screens are weakening.
5. The AI buildout is broader than software; physical AI, drones, humanoids, and industrial applications are part of the same capex cycle.
6. The Fed may face a harder inflation backdrop if money-supply growth stays elevated, reducing the odds of easy rate cuts.
7. Japan and select international markets remain attractive on valuation and can still participate in the AI ecosystem.
8. Healthcare is one of his preferred value/innovation areas because AI may materially shorten drug discovery cycles.

• The claim that Nvidia is a 'value stock' is analytically defensible in his framework but unconventional and depends heavily on using growth-adjusted screens rather than traditional valuation.
• His confidence that AI will boost productivity and not cause a major job-loss shock is plausible but not yet strongly supported by the official productivity data he himself says remains weak.
• The idea that SpaceX is not a top signal rests more on float, index inclusion rules, and capital needs than on evidence that late-stage enthusiasm is benign.
• His inflation concern relies partly on money-supply growth as a guide, which is a debated indicator and not always a reliable short-run predictor.
• The claim that AI spending will ultimately translate into earnings is central to his thesis, but the timing and margin capture remain unproven.
• The optimism on Japan and Europe depends on valuation and selective AI exposure, but the macro and geopolitical backdrops could still overwhelm stock-specific appeal.