Jacques Sapir argues that the war in Ukraine is tilting decisively in Russia’s favor, that Western accounts of Ukrainian gains are propaganda, and that the EU is locked into supporting Kyiv even as battlefield realities worsen. He also argues the June escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted energy stocks will produce a new wave of fuel, fertilizer, and food inflation, with possible rationing and politically destabilizing price spikes in Europe later this year.
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This interview is built around two linked theses: first, that the Ukraine war is moving against Kyiv in a way Western commentary understates; second, that the Middle East energy shock will soon transmit into European fuel and food prices. Sapir’s core claim on Ukraine is that Russia is on the offensive across several fronts, Ukrainian resources are thinning, and Western narratives about Ukrainian battlefield gains are, in his words, propaganda. He says the Russian advance around Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia is real, that Russian reconnaissance elements are already around Kramatorsk, and that the Ukrainian army is entering a phase of partial collapse that he had previously forecast would begin in the summer. He spends a lot of time attacking official and quasi-official Western battlefield assessments, especially UK intelligence warnings about a possible Russian attack on NATO by 2030 …
Near term, the actionable risk is an energy-driven price spike in fuel and related inputs, with rationing pressure if supply stays tight. The setup is tactical inflation shock, not a clean collapse in physical availability.
Over the next few months, the base case is continued geopolitical friction and a slower-burn inflation wave that spreads from transport fuel into food and household budgets. The thesis weakens only if energy flows normalize quickly or policymakers impose effective substitution and rationing.
Structurally, this points to a more fragile global supply regime where wars and chokepoints drive recurring inflation and policy stress. Sapir’s long-run view is that Europe’s energy dependence and weak strategic autonomy will keep translating geopolitics into domestic economic strain.
The UK warning that Russia could attack NATO by 2030 is propaganda, not a realistic assessment.
Sapir says Russia lacks both intent and likely capability to attack NATO now and calls the warning alarmist.
Russia is advancing on multiple fronts in Ukraine and Ukraine’s military is entering a partial collapse phase.
He points to Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia advances and says Ukrainian losses are now severe enough to trigger breakdown.
Western claims that Ukraine is regaining ground or that drone strikes are strategically decisive are exaggerated or propagandistic.
He rejects ISW/DeepState-style narratives and says drone damage is mainly communicative and superficial.
Que vous inspire ces dernières actualités sur l'Ukraine, la Russie et l'Union européenne ?
Jacques Sapire explique que les déclarations de Keir Starmer sont de la basse propagande, que la Russie n'a ni l'intention ni les moyens d'attaquer l'OTAN. Il ajoute que les Russes ne veulent négocier qu'à leurs conditions car ils sont à l'offensive dans trois régions, que l'armée ukrainienne s'effondre et compare la tactique russe à celle nord-vietnamienne de 1975.
How does he interpret the European leaders' continued support for Ukraine despite the worsening battlefield situation?
He says the EU is too politically committed to back away without effectively admitting a defeat. He also argues that current European leaders lack military experience and may either misread their own intelligence or hear what they want to hear, so they overstate Ukraine's position and keep supporting it.
Les unités ukrainiennes ont-elles participé à la Shoah par balle ?
L'intervenant confirme: tout à fait. Il explique que les massacres en Volhynie ont été faits à coup de hache et de bâton car les Allemands ne faisaient pas confiance aux unités ukrainiennes, rappelant la situation du Rwanda. Ces atrocités ont choqué même les unités nazies qui les accompagnaient par leur barbarie particulièrement atroce.
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