A CNBC International Live interview covers two themes: the longer-term case for Mainland Chinese equities and the valuation of major AI private companies. The speaker says China looks more investable than a couple of years ago because policy has shifted toward supporting growth, self-resilience, and quality companies, while property-sector and policy-uncertainty concerns have become less central. On AI private-market names, he says SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI valuations look extreme and he wants more earnings support before being comfortable.
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The speaker’s core view is that Mainland Chinese equities have become more investable than they were a couple of years ago, because the market narrative has moved away from policy uncertainty and the property overhang toward China’s self-resilience, long-term policy planning, and support for growth. He argues that the Chinese government’s planning and reserve accumulation helped the country weather the energy shock better than most, and that policymakers under Xi Jinping now recognize that growth and the ability of quality companies to expand within reasonable bounds matter. In his framing, the government should be supportive of growth rather than overly prescriptive. He also says the old concerns have not disappeared entirely. He explicitly notes that massive excess industrial capacity still exists across a range of sectors, so the improvement in sentiment is not a blank check. …
Tactically, the speaker is cautious on hyped AI private names and would wait for earnings evidence rather than chase lofty valuations. China looks relatively better supported in the near term, but the immediate risk is any deterioration from energy costs or supply disruptions.
Over the next few months, China could continue to re-rate positively if policy stays growth-friendly and resilience holds up, while AI private valuations need continued earnings momentum to avoid de-rating. If profit delivery slows, the current enthusiasm around names like Anthropic and OpenAI may be questioned.
The longer-term implication is a shift toward a China market story built on state-backed resilience and selective growth rather than blanket skepticism. In AI, the structural lesson is that adoption can be real and transformative, but ultimate winners still need durable cash generation and a business model investors can underwrite.
Mainland Chinese equities look more investable now than they did a couple of years ago.
He contrasts current conditions with prior policy uncertainty and property-sector concerns.
China's policy planning and reserves have helped it weather the energy shock better than most.
He cites long-term reserve buildup and policy planning as resilience factors.
The property overhang in China is still there but is less central than before.
He says it has not been forgotten, but the market focus has shifted.
How does the longer-term investment thesis for Mainland Chinese equities stack up, and is Xi Jinping doubling down on the AI economy a theme that is really galvanizing investors?
The guest says the narrative has moved from whether Chinese equities are investable to China's self-resilience. Good long-term policy planning helped China weather the energy shock, and the property overhang concern has lessened as focus shifts to other growth areas. There's recognition from Xi Jinping down that growth and good quality companies matter, and government should be supportive rather than prescriptive.
China's May trade data showed front-loading, but do you foresee a period when that front-loading wears off and the full brunt of the supply chain crisis from the Middle East hits China's data?
The guest acknowledges it's a tough question but says China has been more resilient due to the policy reasons described earlier. Higher energy costs from the conflict will affect everyone, not just China, and China may be slightly better off due to domestic oil sources and significant flows from Russia.
When clients ask you if they should buy SpaceX and OpenAI when they come to market, what do you tell them?
The guest thinks valuations look extreme even by current AI market standards. He prefers to see more earnings support before investing.
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