Gareth Soloway argues the market is rolling over after an AI-led, euphoric run, and he thinks the pending SpaceX IPO is pulling liquidity from semis and other risk assets. He is bearish near term on the S&P, gold, silver, and copper, while favoring defensive names, Treasuries, and possibly the dollar until lower prices create better entries.
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This interview is centered on Gareth Soloway’s view that the market’s recent strength has been driven by AI euphoria, repeated buy-the-dip behavior, and the expectation that policy makers will support risk assets — and that this setup is now starting to unwind. He thinks the pending SpaceX IPO, with its huge valuation and retail/institutional demand, is a meaningful liquidity event that is already contributing to weakness in semiconductors and broader equities. In his framing, the market is moving from a “markets can’t lose” psychology toward the first signs of a real trend break. His core technical argument is that the S&P 500 has broken its prior pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and that the recent pullback may be the start of a larger correction. …
Near term, the tape looks fragile: AI/semis are the pressure point, the SpaceX IPO is a sentiment/liquidity event, and a break of key support could keep selling momentum alive. I’d treat rallies as tradable unless the S&P quickly reclaims prior highs.
Over the next few weeks/months, the base case is rotation out of crowded AI winners into defensives, Treasuries, and select beaten-down staples if the S&P fails to rebuild higher-highs structure. A renewed melt-up would require stronger breadth, better AI follow-through, or fresh policy support.
Structurally, this is a late-cycle crowding story: a narrow leadership market can persist, but it becomes more vulnerable to sharp reversals once valuation and positioning are stretched. If this break holds, the bigger implication is a regime shift toward rotation, not broad passive complacency.
The SpaceX IPO is likely pulling liquidity out of semis and other risk assets, contributing to market weakness.
The host and Gareth connect recent weakness in semiconductors and the stock market to investors taking profits and reallocating toward the SpaceX IPO.
The S&P 500 has broken its higher-high/higher-low structure and may be entering a larger pullback.
He says the first time the current low has undercut the prior pullback low, which he treats as a possible trend change.
The 7,000 area on the S&P 500 is the first major support zone bulls need to defend.
He identifies the former high pivot as technical support and specifically says the range is around 7,000.
Where is the liquidity coming from for the SpaceX IPO? Is it disappearing from the precious metals sector?
Gareth says we're seeing selling pressure in semiconductors as people take profits to free up cash for SpaceX. He notes that Bank of America advised clients to sell, citing similarities to the dot-com bubble.
What drove the S&P 500 to record highs over the last few weeks?
Gareth explains there's a buy-the-dip mentality ingrained since COVID and the financial crisis, reinforced by the belief the Fed and government will backstop markets. Combined with AI euphoria, this created an incredible rally. However, now that the trend line has broken, we're seeing a big pullback.
Where do you see support on the S&P 500?
Gareth identifies the former high pivot around the 7,000 level as the first technical support level where bulls will try to hold the line and a bounce would be expected.
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