A highly volatile live futures trading stream centered on NASDAQ/ES price action around CPI, Bank of Canada, oil, and later Trump’s Iran remarks. The speaker spent most of the session scalping a very large opening range, repeatedly using order blocks, VWAP, and moving averages to switch between longs and shorts as headlines hit the tape.
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The core thesis of the stream was tactical rather than macro: the speaker believed the market was trading in an unusually large intraday range and that the best approach was to scalp around structure levels, VWAP, and order blocks rather than try to force one directional view. Early on, he said price might be “difficult,” that the open could be “choppy,” and that he was targeting a short toward the CPI low before the news. As the session evolved, he repeatedly framed the day as a range-trading environment with huge volatility, emphasizing that one bad entry could cost 100+ points and that smaller stops or smaller size were necessary. A major driver of the discussion was the interplay between CPI, inflation, and Fed policy. …
Immediate setup is headline-driven and highly tactical: trade smaller, respect VWAP/EMA retests, and expect fast reversals if oil or Iran news pushes risk sentiment. Breaks of the intraday range can extend hard, but failed follow-through is a real risk.
Over the next several weeks, the likely path is continued volatility around inflation and policy expectations, with equity direction depending on whether price can hold above major intraday/hourly acceptance zones. If oil and geopolitical stress stay elevated, rallies may keep fading into strength.
The structural backdrop is a volatility regime where macro headlines and policy repricing overwhelm static chart patterns. The durable edge is risk discipline and adaptive sizing, not any single technical setup or indicator.
The opening tape was likely to be difficult and choppy, not a clean trend day.
He explicitly said he was not sure about the day’s price action and expected difficulty before the open.
Higher inflation alone is not straightforwardly bullish or bearish; the Fed response matters more for the dollar and equities.
He repeatedly argued inflation and rate policy have opposite effects and that policy response is what drives the main market reaction.
Oil strength was a warning sign for equities and a sign that risk-off pressure could persist.
He repeatedly said oil looked bullish and used it to caution against equity longs.
Is there any reason to think this is a fake move to the upside?
The speaker mentions their earlier reasoning was that there was a hawkish thing about bonds, but CPI came as expected which cooled off the short side. They note core CPI month-over-month was actually lower than expected. However, the answer is somewhat fragmented and shared across multiple speakers in a conversational style.
Do you think a long VWAP on ES is a good spot?
The respondent says yes, it's a good spot — it's a little below the midpoint of the opening range. They add that if it gets there it could work, but they're unsure if it will even reach that level because price seems strong and pullbacks are very heavy (150+ points against you).
Did that 29,000 trade get you like at least 50 points?
The trader confirms it was a nice trade that should push to maybe 29060, and the other trader acknowledges they took profit around that area.
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