This Yahoo Finance segment is a skeptical interview about the proposed SpaceX share sale, with Corey mainly arguing that the valuation depends on multiple moonshot assumptions that are not yet proven. He says the deal structure, index buying, and retail enthusiasm may be helping push price higher, but that the trading around the IPO is likely to be detached from the actual fundamentals of the businesses inside the package.
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Corey’s core thesis is that SpaceX is being sold to investors on a highly optimistic, arguably overstated future, and that the current share price requires believing several unproven businesses will all work exceptionally well at once. He distinguishes between business excitement and investable value, arguing that the pricing may be helped by deal mechanics, index forced buying, and hype around Elon Musk rather than by fundamentals. He repeatedly returns to the idea that “the trading of the around the price could be very separated from the fundamentals of the business.” He breaks the company into three pieces: Starlink, rockets/Starship, and the AI/XAI component. On Starlink, he says the connectivity product is not ordinary phone service but a niche satellite-phone style service that requires line of sight and is not comparable to seamless mobile use. …
Tactically, the setup looks crowded and hype-sensitive: the share sale price may be inflated by retail demand, index-related buying, and deal optics. Near term, any disappointment on Starship, XAI, or contract durability could hit sentiment fast.
Over the next few months, the burden of proof is on SpaceX to show that multiple ventures can mature into real, scalable economics. If launch cadence, AI monetization, and customer demand all validate, the valuation can hold; if not, the market may re-rate the stock lower.
Long term, the debate is whether SpaceX is becoming a true multi-platform infrastructure company or just a bundle of far-future options priced as one business. The durable lesson is that optionality only compounds into value if the underlying businesses become demonstrably real.
SpaceX’s trading price may be being driven more by deal mechanics, index rules, and hype than by fundamentals.
He says investment banks, index buying, and retail demand are pushing the share release and price higher in ways that can detach from business value.
Starlink is not equivalent to ordinary mobile phone service and has a more limited use case.
He says the service requires line of sight and is essentially satellite-phone style connectivity, not seamless indoor/ambulatory phone usage.
XAI’s historical revenue has mostly come from Twitter/X rather than from artificial intelligence.
He argues the debt and revenue story is tied to Musk’s social media acquisition and restructuring, not a true AI business.
What are people actually buying when they buy shares in SpaceX?
The guest argues there's a separation between the hype around the deal and the fundamentals of the business. He says investment banks are manipulating the share release and index rules to jack up the price, and that the CEO's polarizing fame creates additional hype. He notes that criticizing Elon Musk's businesses often gets seen as political even though his criticism predates Musk's current political alignment.
What are the three parts of SpaceX's business and how does the S1 filing frame their total addressable market?
The guest says the TAM framing is ludicrous. He argues the connectivity business is satellite phones requiring line of sight outdoors, not mobile phones. He points out that XAI's historic revenues are mostly from Twitter/social media, not AI, and that the massive debt on the balance sheet came from Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition losses being dumped into the SpaceX entity.
Is SpaceX really an AI company like OpenAI or Anthropic?
The guest says the answer is no. He notes that few people use Grok as their primary AI engine, and on benchmarks like GPQA diamond, Grok is a distant player compared to Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's ChatGPT, and DeepSeek. He argues that renting out unused GPU capacity (as XAI is doing with contracts from Anthropic and Google right before the IPO) is fundamentally different from building a valuable software/AI engine — server leasing is a depreciating asset business.
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