Reuters’ Harry Eastwood argues SpaceX’s debut is less a conventional IPO than a high-stakes test of investor faith in Elon Musk and in AI/space optionality. He says the valuation looks extreme on current revenue, but the deal may still pop because demand is strong and index funds are likely to be forced buyers, making it a key read-through for later AI listings like OpenAI and Anthropic.
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The segment frames SpaceX’s public debut as the biggest IPO in history and immediately centers the valuation debate: the company is said to be valued at about $1.77 trillion, or roughly 100 times revenue / 92 times last year’s sales, despite having posted a loss. Harry Eastwood of Altimus Investment Management says that means the market is not really paying for today’s business, but for the “optional[ity]” attached to Elon Musk’s future plans. Eastwood’s core thesis is that the offering is essentially a bet on Musk’s credibility and on far-out growth narratives such as data centers in space, Starship, and even a Mars colony-style long-dated vision. He repeatedly stresses that “it’s full-on faith in Elon Musk,” while also acknowledging that the market is currently willing to underwrite that faith. …
Near term, the trade is driven by launch-day enthusiasm versus valuation shock; strong opening demand can keep it elevated, but any fade will likely be sharp because expectations are already extreme.
Over the next several weeks, the stock’s path will depend on whether post-IPO ownership broadens and whether insider selling appears after the shorter lockups. A stable price would validate the optionality narrative; weakness would suggest the market is less tolerant of frontier-tech excess than the debut implied.
Structurally, this is a sign that public markets still reward founder-led, long-duration moonshot narratives when the float is scarce and index ownership is forced. If it works, it may encourage a higher-multiple regime for elite AI and space-adjacent listings; if not, it could become a warning about speculative pricing discipline.
SpaceX’s valuation is extreme on current fundamentals, at about 100 times revenues and 92 times last year’s sales.
He explicitly says the current business is being valued at extreme multiples and cites the revenue/sales figures.
The market is pricing SpaceX mainly for future optionality tied to Elon Musk’s ambitions in space and data centers.
He says investors are paying for future optionality and lists the specific growth narratives behind it.
The stock could move violently in either direction because the market is still digesting whether the growth path is even possible.
He says it could double or halve and that volatility is likely as the market digests the story.
Is this really about whether the market has faith in Elon Musk?
He says there is definitely an element of faith in Elon Musk. In his view, the valuation is extreme on current fundamentals, so investors are really paying for the optionality of Musk's future projects, including space data centers and Starship-driven growth.
Could the stock quickly come back down to earth?
He thinks it could swing sharply, potentially doubling or halving. He also notes strong retail demand, but warns that insider lock-up expiries could create selling pressure later.
What are the wider market consequences of such a large deal?
He says the deal is important because index providers may be forced or choose to include the company quickly, creating commercial and mechanical buying from funds. He adds that many retail investors may not fully understand the business model or required growth rates, so the post-IPO trading behavior will be an important thing to watch.
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