Stock Market Deep Dive! Iran Deal, SpaceX IPO, Oil Targets, & Bitcoin Bull Setup

Gareth Soloway opens by framing the day as a high-stakes setup dominated by three themes: a potential U.S.-Iran deal, the SpaceX IPO, and the market’s response to inflation-sensitive assets like oil, yields, gold, and Bitcoin. He presents himself as a chart-first trader who rejects narrative trading and repeatedly emphasizes probabilities, support/resistance, and trend confirmation. On Iran and oil, his core view is that the market is pricing in a real chance of a deal because oil had already fallen into the mid-$80s. He ties this to both market reaction and politics: the administration wants lower inflation into the election season, and he implies lower oil would help the White House and Republicans’ chances in November. …

1. The video is a chart-driven market wrap anchored on Iran, oil, the SpaceX IPO, and inflation-sensitive assets.
2. Soloway is not buying the SpaceX IPO at the open; he treats it as a hype event with uncertain post-debut behavior.
3. He sees oil weakness as politically and macro-significant because lower oil would help inflation and election optics.
4. He expects major equity indices and several megacap tech names to bounce tactically after sharp selloffs, but wants confirmation.
5. Gold’s recent behavior worries him because it has been trading like a risk asset rather than a defensive hedge.
6. Bitcoin is near a possible bounce zone, but the bullish case depends on reclaiming 64,200 and holding the recent low area.
7. Adobe stands out as a possible contrarian long because fundamentals were better than the price action implies.
8. He repeatedly frames every call in terms of levels, trend breaks, and probability rather than narrative.

• The conspiracy-style suggestion that political actors or Elon Musk may have influenced market-moving headlines is speculative and unsupported.
• The claim that the market ‘fullheartedly believed’ an Iran deal based on oil moving is inference, not direct evidence of belief.
• The assertion that retail demand will be enough to sustain the SpaceX IPO is plausible but not demonstrated.
• The view that gold should not rally with risk assets is a useful heuristic, but gold can also move on real yields, positioning, and macro uncertainty.
• The suggestion that Adobe’s selloff is a likely opportunity may underweight the possibility that AI disruption and management turnover justify a lower multiple.