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CHINA WARNING: America's CRITICAL MINERAL push gets POWERFUL new ally

Channel: Fox Business Published: 2026-06-12 10:00
Fox Business

The clip is a Fox Business interview about U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on China for tungsten and other critical minerals. The guest argues tungsten is strategically essential for defense, says China has tightened supply, and presents a Kazakhstan joint venture as a major long-life source that could help supply the U.S. and allies.

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Detailed summary

This segment argues that critical minerals, especially tungsten, have become a national-security priority because China still dominates supply chains and the U.S. lacks meaningful domestic production. The guest says the U.S. has not had tungsten production since 2015, that China controls the market, and that recent Chinese actions have further tightened supply. The framing is explicitly geopolitical: tungsten is presented as essential to defense, munitions, artillery, and other military uses, so any squeeze in supply is treated as a strategic vulnerability rather than a normal industrial issue. A major point in the interview is the guest’s Kazakhstan project. He says the company has been in Kazakhstan since 2023, has acquired multiple licenses, and is developing what he calls the largest tungsten project in the world. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Tungsten is framed as a defense-critical mineral, not just an industrial commodity.
  2. The guest says China dominates supply and has tightened controls, leaving the U.S. exposed.
  3. A Kazakhstan joint venture is presented as the key non-China supply solution.
  4. The project is described as large enough to supply U.S. demand for decades.
  5. The segment supports a broader U.S. push for domestic and allied critical-minerals sourcing.
  6. The interview is optimistic on execution and light on downside risks.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Tactically, the setup is bullish for critical-minerals sentiment, but the trade still depends on actual financing and project milestones rather than the interview alone. Near-term upside likely comes from more policy rhetoric or any fresh China supply constraint, while execution delays would quickly cool the story.

  • Watch for follow-through on the Kazakhstan tungsten project: funding, permits, and any concrete production timeline.
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  • Near-term catalyst is continued political focus on critical minerals and China supply risk.
  • The tactical risk is that the segment is mostly narrative until the capital plan and project milestones are verified.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the base case is continued investor and policy interest in non-China mineral supply chains, with Kazakhstan-style projects benefitting if they can show real progress. The view changes if development stalls, capital gets tighter, or the strategic narrative is not matched by operational delivery.

  • Over the next several weeks to months, the key question is whether the Kazakhstan asset can move from strategic story to tangible development progress.
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  • The base case implied by the interview is that allied-sourcing projects will gain more attention as the U.S. tries to de-risk from China.
  • Validation would come from financing closes, development milestones, and clearer production scheduling rather than rhetoric.
Long term

The long-run implication is a more fragmented and geopolitically screened minerals system, where supply security matters as much as price. If this regime persists, companies with credible reserves in friendly jurisdictions and access to capital could become structurally more valuable.

  • The structural thesis is that strategic materials supply chains are being reorganized around geopolitical reliability, not just cost.
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  • If the U.S. remains underexposed to tungsten and similar inputs, allied projects in places like Kazakhstan become part of a durable new supply architecture.
  • The lasting implication is that China’s leverage in critical minerals remains a major industrial-policy and defense issue.
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Key claims (7)

BULLISH critical minerals Tungsten

The U.S. is trying to outpace China in critical mineral supplies, especially tungsten.

Opening framing of the segment and guest discussion.

BEARISH supply chain dependence Tungsten

The U.S. has not had tungsten production since 2015 and remains dependent on China.

Guest gives a direct historical claim about U.S. production and dependence.

BULLISH China policy Tungsten

China’s tightening of tungsten controls has worsened an already strained supply situation.

Guest says new Chinese action further exacerbated the issue.

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Assets discussed (7)

Tungsten
BULLISH commodity

Strategic mineral with constrained supply and defense demand.

Kazakhstan tungsten project
BULLISH other

Presented as a long-duration supply source for the U.S.

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Speakers

HOST Maria Bartiromo GUEST Capital Executive Chairman

Interview (3 Q&A)

tungsten importance

What is tungsten used for and why does the U.S. need to win the race against China for tungsten supply?

The U.S. has had no tungsten production since 2015, China controls the supply and imposed export controls two weeks after President Trump took office. The U.S. military relies on tungsten for nearly all American defense — munitions, artillery, and high-tech equipment helping troops in operations against adversaries. This reliance on China for decades is now a critical vulnerability.

Kazakhstan investment

How much money has your company invested in the Kazakhstan tungsten project and how will the deal work?

The company has been in Kazakhstan since 2023, acquiring 15 licenses covering lithium, beryllium, and a joint venture with the national mining company to develop the largest rare-earth project in Kazakhstan. They have invested tens of millions of dollars so far with a commitment to spend $1.1 billion to develop the tungsten project, which is the largest in the world. The economics don't require subsidies — they can access capital markets and have received $1.6 billion in letters of intent from the government. They are expediting production due to the supply squeeze in the U.S.

domestic production

What do you think about the need for domestic buildup of critical minerals in the U.S.?

The guest agrees that domestic production is critical, calling it 'quite ludicrous' that the U.S. military-industrial supply chain has relied on China for 30-40 years. However, he notes that the U.S. lacks meaningful tungsten deposits on its own soil that could supply the country for decades. While domestic production is needed wherever possible, the company focuses on allied countries like Kazakhstan which is well open to U.S. investment. The Trump administration has enabled this through public-private partnerships.

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The claim that the U.S. has no meaningful domestic tungsten option is asserted, not demonstrated.
  • The projected 50-plus-year supply ability is presented without reserve, grade, or permitting detail.
  • The economics are described as subsidy-free, but no full cost structure or sensitivity analysis is provided.
  • Kazakhstan is treated as a stable allied-like jurisdiction, but geopolitical and operational risks are not discussed.
  • The interview emphasizes strategic urgency but gives little evidence that the project timeline is close enough to solve near-term shortages.

Topics

critical mineralstungstenChina supply controlKazakhstan joint ventureU.S. defense supply chainpublic-private mineral policyallied sourcingrare earthsmining capital formation

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