This is a technical USD/JPY outlook centered on a multi-decade resistance zone around 160-161, with the speaker warning that the pair is at a critical inflection point ahead of BOJ and Fed meetings and amid possible US-Iran peace headlines. The base case remains bullish while price holds above nearby supports, but a sustained break higher could invite intervention risk, while a loss of key supports would open a deeper corrective path and potentially a long-term trend change.
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The speaker argues that USD/JPY is testing a major resistance cluster that combines the 2024 highs, the 1990s highs, and a multi-year channel boundary. He frames the current setup as a high-conviction technical inflection point, not just a routine overbought move. The immediate context matters: markets are cautious ahead of possible US-Iran peace signals and next week’s Bank of Japan and Fed meetings, both of which could change the macro backdrop and amplify any break in either direction. The main bullish thesis is that the broader trend remains up unless price loses a series of supports. On the two-week chart, he says the pair has respected an uptrending parallel channel since 2022, and the rebound from April 2025 has also stayed within a smaller rising channel. He identifies resistance at 160 and near 161, then extends the upside if price can hold above roughly 160.80 and 161.60. …
Tactically, USD/JPY is pressing into a historically important ceiling, so the trade is less about chasing momentum and more about watching whether 160-161 clears cleanly or sparks a policy-backed rejection. Near-term event risk from BOJ/Fed and any Japan intervention commentary makes the breakout setup fragile.
Over the next several weeks, the pair likely either extends toward the 166 area if the dollar stays firm and resistance gives way, or rolls over into a corrective move if it loses 159.40-158. The key validation is whether the broader rising channel survives the next policy cycle.
The long-run question is whether USD/JPY is still inside a durable multi-year dollar-strength regime or approaching a structural top. A decisive failure below 147 would be the signal that the post-2022 uptrend has given way to a new bearish regime.
USD/JPY is testing a multi-decade resistance zone near the 160-161 area.
The speaker repeatedly identifies 160, 160.80, and 161.60 as the key resistance cluster.
A sustained break above 160.80 and 161.60 could extend USD/JPY toward 166.40-166.50 and then higher.
He lays out a breakout path using Fibonacci extensions and channel targets.
If USD/JPY loses 159.40 and then 158, the pair could retrace to 155, 152, and possibly 147.
He presents a staged downside map with multiple support breaks.
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