A live, highly tactical market stream centered on the SpaceX IPO debut and intraday index trading. The speaker framed SpaceX as a likely volatile IPO with an initial pop, then spent most of the session tracking SPY/NQ, option walls, gamma levels, and anchored VWAPs while repeatedly emphasizing position sizing and risk management over prediction.
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This was a long, real-time trading stream built around the launch of the SpaceX IPO, with the speaker watching the first prints, discussing likely IPO volatility, and using anchored VWAP on the IPO itself as the main tactical reference. He expected the name to be highly active and potentially subject to a strong opening pop, but repeatedly stressed that the important question was not “where it goes” in the abstract, but how to manage entries, stops, and size around the first VWAP tests and subsequent breakouts or failures. A major parallel track was the broader market tape. The speaker spent substantial time on SPY and NQ, highlighting a 740 area on SPY as an important intraday pivot, with 745 as the next upside area tied to the daily implied move and 735 as the downside area if 740 failed. …
Near term, the tape is tactically tradable but fragile: SPY holding 740 keeps upside open, while 735 is the main downside marker. SpaceX is still in price discovery, so the first VWAP retest and follow-through matter more than any narrative.
Over the next few weeks, the likely path is rotation-driven rather than index-trending unless volatility compresses. If software and healthcare keep holding constructive VWAP/backtest structures, they can become the cleaner swing setups while the broad tape stays choppy.
Structurally, the stream argues for a regime where risk management, implied-move analysis, and stock selection matter more than macro storytelling. In that environment, traders survive by adapting size and horizon to volatility rather than predicting a single market direction.
Big wins kill trading accounts; going for oversized gains is the primary cause of account blowups.
Speaker asserts based on personal experience that scaling up too aggressively leads to blowups.
SpaceX IPO will open with an excitement pop and significant volatility, creating an opportunity to sell into strength.
The speaker reasons that large IPOs typically pop on opening but underperform over the first year, and that selling into the initial excitement is the typical trade.
Trading one micro contract and being comfortable with small daily gains ($100-$200) is the key to passing prop firm evaluations without blowing accounts.
Speaker shares his personal strategy of using small position sizing and accepting modest daily returns to survive the trailing drawdown rule.
Would it be out of the question for Microsoft to get back to its first lower implied move this month?
Christopher checks the options chain and finds the implied move is about $32. The lower implied move would be about $417. He says it's not crazy given the selloff and that with over half the month remaining, a 7% move is possible in current volatility. He bought a little at the lower implied move level and is looking for a move to $400.
What's your take on Amazon and SPY?
Amazon is coming off the lows which is nice, but it's been outside its weekly implied move for week two and is doodling back into that area. The speaker is watching SPY to see if it can get up to 745, in which case they'd dump some of their small trade position.
Can you look at some software names and IGV?
The speaker walks through IGV (software ETF). They note many software names have looked bad most of this year but they saw double bottoms forming similar to healthcare. Price is above year-to-date VWAP and back-testing a key level. They present a risk/reward setup: risking 50 basis points on a pullback with potential upside to a previous target. They emphasize position sizing - risking too much of portfolio can cause problems over time.
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