The speaker argues that the market is overreacting to a Wall Street Journal report about OpenAI missing revenue targets, and he expects the selloff in Nvidia, Oracle, and related AI/data-center names to reverse. He remains constructive on AI spending and especially Nvidia, but says his own position is already too large to buy more; instead he is more interested in trimming or hedging and rotating into other AI beneficiaries like Nebius, CoreWeave, Micron, Qualcomm, and possibly AMD.
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This video is a fast-moving market monitor centered on the idea that the market’s reaction to an OpenAI revenue-target story is overblown. The speaker repeatedly argues that the Wall Street Journal report being cited was based on 2025 targets, and that more recent reporting suggests OpenAI is actually doing well, with strong product traction from Codex and GPT-5.5, growing enterprise adoption, and rising usage across tools. His core conclusion is that the selloff in Nvidia, Oracle, and other data-center / AI infrastructure names is not justified by the underlying compute demand, because if one model provider or one lab underperforms, the chips and data-center capacity still tend to get absorbed by another buyer. He makes this point by walking through the day’s price action: Nvidia, Oracle, Amazon, Meta, and other AI-adjacent stocks are weak, while some software names appear to be …
The immediate setup looks like a headline-driven AI pullback rather than a broken trend, so the near-term risk is chasing the selloff lower after a single report. If the OpenAI news gets walked back or better usage data appears, the AI complex could rebound quickly.
Over the next few weeks to months, the market should refocus on actual compute demand, earnings, and capex rather than one revenue-target article. Confirmation would come from stronger usage, continued infrastructure spending, and stable guidance from AI beneficiaries; the view weakens if capacity data or earnings suggest demand is truly rolling over.
The structural view is that AI compute demand is still in an expansion regime and likely to be redistributed across multiple winners rather than concentrated in one company. The lasting risk is not demand disappearance but valuation, concentration, and capital-allocation mistakes among the companies and holders exposed to the theme.
The article about OpenAI missing AI revenue targets is from 2025 and is overblown; OpenAI's business is actually crushing it this year.
Speaker says the article is old (2025) and that OpenAI's business is firing on all cylinders since Codex and GPT 5.5.
OpenAI is accelerating and outperforming expectations despite a negative Wall Street Journal article highlighting key target misses from 2025.
The speaker cites Writtenhouse Research and semi analysis stating that with ChatGPT-5 release and Anthropic's capacity constraints, OpenAI is accelerating.
Nvidia is too large a percentage of the speaker's portfolio and he is closer to selling than buying at all-time highs.
Speaker says Nvidia has become way too big a position due to its ATH while other holdings are down, so he trims.
Are you a gold subscriber who can give Q1 predictions?
No, the guest says they don't do gold subscriber predictions because there's no way to actually get the numbers for that, though they assume penetration continues to climb.
Did you buy Nvidia yesterday?
No, the guest did not buy Nvidia. They are closer to selling than buying because Nvidia has become too large a percentage of their portfolio, hitting all-time highs while names like Shopify and SoFi are down. They would stay in the AI space but buy names like Nebius, Coreweave, Micron, or Qualcomm instead.
What are your thoughts on AMD compared to Nvidia?
AMD looks extremely expensive but has a dominant market share in CPUs and strong guidance with large deals from hyperscaler-level purchasers like Meta. However, the guest notes that while people look at market cap, multiples are still important and AMD is expensive on that basis.
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