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Wargaming with Jacquelyn Schneider

Channel: Hoover Institution Published: 2026-05-21 09:00
Hoover Institution

Jacquelyn Schneider explains Hoover’s wargaming and crisis simulation initiative as both a research program and an archive-building effort. The core idea is to run academically designed war games, preserve not just the game outputs but also the surrounding memos and decision context, and make those primary sources easily accessible to students and researchers online.

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Detailed summary

Schneider’s central thesis is that Hoover can play a unique role in studying war and crisis decision-making because it has both the archival resources and the institutional capacity to run original wargames. She argues that the initiative is not just about preserving games themselves, but about capturing the broader decision environment around them — what she calls the “inner game” and the “outer game.” The inner game is the simulation participants play; the outer game is why the simulation was run and how its findings later influenced policy and history. A key example she uses is the Berlin crisis game played at Camp David shortly after the Berlin Wall went up in August 1961. She describes the geopolitical stakes as extremely high, with U.S.-Soviet tensions over Berlin raising the possibility of nuclear escalation. …

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Main takeaways

  1. Hoover’s initiative combines running original wargames with building a searchable historical archive.
  2. Schneider distinguishes between the “inner game” and the “outer game” to explain why context matters.
  3. The Berlin crisis game is presented as an example of wargaming’s influence on real policy decisions.
  4. The archive is meant to be digitally accessible to students and researchers via wargaming.hoover.org.
  5. The program’s broader goal is to make primary-source history easier to use in national-security study.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Immediate setup is educational/institutional rather than tradable: the main catalyst is the launch and usability of Hoover’s online wargame archive. The key near-term question is whether the materials are easy to access and useful enough to attract scholars and students.

  • The immediate focus is launching and surfacing the Hoover archive so users can actually access materials online.
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  • The main near-term catalyst is the digitized repository at wargaming.hoover.org and its search tools.
  • A practical risk is that the archive’s value depends on how complete and well-contextualized the collected memos and records are.
Mid term

Over the next few months, the program should gain traction if it can show that archived simulations help explain policy choices and crisis outcomes. If adoption is weak or the archive lacks context, the impact will remain niche.

  • Over the next several weeks or months, the initiative’s usefulness will depend on whether researchers and students adopt the archive as a workflow tool.
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  • If the project successfully links wargame outputs to downstream policy decisions, it could become a reference model for crisis-simulation research.
  • The base case is that the program expands historical and policy analysis by combining game design, archival evidence, and case-study teaching.
Long term

Longer term, the clip argues for a structural shift in how security history is studied: war games should be treated as primary sources whose surrounding documentation is preserved. That would make simulation archives a lasting part of the research infrastructure for national-security analysis.

  • Structurally, Schneider is arguing for wargaming as a durable method of understanding state behavior under crisis.
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  • The lasting implication is that archives should preserve not only event outcomes but the surrounding interpretive record.
  • If successful, the initiative could shift how scholars study Cold War crises and future security dilemmas by normalizing simulation archives as primary sources.
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Key claims (8)

BULLISH national security research infrastructure Hoover Institution wargaming initiative

Hoover can play a pivotal role in preserving and using war games to study major questions.

This is the opening thesis about the institution’s purpose and value.

BULLISH research design Hoover wargaming initiative

What makes Hoover different is that it runs its own academically designed games.

She contrasts Hoover’s approach with other war-game practitioners.

BULLISH archival method Hoover Institution library and archives

The archive is unique because it collects not just games but memos and conversations around them.

This is her main argument for why archival context matters.

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Speakers

GUEST Jacquelyn Schneider

Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The transcript largely presents the initiative as unambiguously valuable and does not engage major objections.
  • A possible weakness is that it assumes wargames materially influenced policy without showing the full chain of causality in this clip.
  • The historical example is evocative, but the evidence presented here is anecdotal rather than rigorously demonstrated.

Topics

wargamingcrisis simulationHoover InstitutionarchivesBerlin crisisCuban Missile CrisisCold Warprimary sourcesdigital access

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