Darrell Thomas interviews Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital about his 2026 outlook on gold, silver, copper, energy, the dollar, and portfolio rotation. Costa argues that the bull market in hard assets is still early, driven by central-bank buying, massive global debt burdens, likely dollar weakness, and a multi-year shift away from expensive U.S. financial assets into commodities, mining, and selected energy exposure.
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This is a gold-and-hard-assets bullish interview centered on Tavi Costa’s view that the current cycle is still early, not late. His core thesis is that investors are underestimating how far the reallocation from expensive financial assets into hard assets can run. He repeatedly frames gold as near nominal highs but still cheap relative to money supply, credit, and financial assets such as the S&P 500. He also argues that the mining sector is not pricing in the scale of the move yet, and that the broader setup resembles the early/mid phase of a long bull market rather than a blowoff top. Costa’s main supporting evidence is macro and relative-value driven. He points to the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio, saying it remains far from the extremes that marked prior peaks, and notes that central banks are still holding gold at sub-30% of balance sheets versus much higher historical levels. …
Near term, the cleanest tactical read is that energy and selected miners look under-owned while the dollar sits near a potentially important support zone. A break in DXY or a fresh commodity scare would be the most actionable confirmation.
Over the next few months, the base case is continued rotation toward hard assets, with gold leading and silver/copper/energy following if supply constraints stay tight. The setup improves if U.S. rates ease and ex-US markets keep outperforming.
Structurally, the transcript argues for a multi-year regime of dollar erosion and hard-asset outperformance driven by debt, fiscal pressure, and underinvestment in real capacity. If correct, commodities and resource equities become strategic rather than cyclical holdings.
Gold is still in the early stages of a long-term bull market and nowhere close to a cyclical peak.
Compares the current gold cycle to the S&P 500 trend after the tech bust or global financial crisis — early momentum phase, not a peak.
Silver will not mean-revert to $20/oz and will likely find support at $50-$70/oz in the next 5-10 years.
Speaker argues the market is pricing silver to return to $20/oz, but that won't happen due to contracting production, lack of discoveries, and insufficient capital spending by miners.
Copper will undergo a massive repricing to levels never seen before because above-ground supply is tight and new projects take 10-15 years.
The speaker argues that copper supply is constrained above ground, discoveries are at multi-decade lows, and no new supply is coming online for 10-15 years, creating a price discovery phase.
What is your outlook for gold this year?
Tavi Costa says he does not think in one-year price targets and instead focuses on a three- to ten-year horizon. He argues gold is still early in a long rotation into hard assets, supported by central-bank buying and the fact that gold remains low relative to money supply and global credit.
What is your perspective on the rotation out of US mega-cap tech stocks into undervalued assets like emerging markets, given that the big tech companies may be losing steam?
Darius says it's logical to have allocation in South America, noting something structural is happening there. Regarding AI/tech stocks, he explains these companies are in a true arms race where spending is critical to survive, so they're unlikely to stop spending. They have strong balance sheets with net cash and generate roughly half a trillion in free cash flow annually, though free cash flow is likely to shrink as capex increases. The question for investors is how high multiples look if balance sheets deteriorate and free cash flow shrinks unless AI generates more revenue. He would not short the idea that capex continues, disagreeing with the doom and gloom, pointing to Amazon and Meta as examples.
What are the best opportunities if AI companies keep spending heavily on capex and infrastructure?
The guest says the capital will likely flow into energy, materials, infrastructure, and financials. They specifically favor energy and materials right now, while noting utilities and financials could also benefit.
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