The speaker is bullish on SoFi and says he is buying more shares around $18, framing the recent selloff as a valuation reset rather than a business deterioration. His core case is that revenue, member growth, fee-based mix, margins, and guidance have all improved materially, while the stock has fallen sharply with other high-beta names.
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This is a single-speaker bullish thesis on SoFi stock. The speaker says he has “loaded up” on SoFi in the $18 range and argues the current price is roughly where the stock traded five years ago despite a very different underlying business. His central point is that SoFi has compounded from a small, loss-making lender into a much larger, more diversified, more profitable financial platform, yet the market has marked the shares down 43% over the last six months. He supports that view with a long list of operating metrics. Revenue is said to have risen from about $171 million to more than $1 billion per quarter, lending revenue has increased over 234%, financial services revenue has grown from $4 million to $456 million, and the tech platform has expanded from about $37 million to over $122 million quarterly. …
Tactically, the setup is a momentum-vs-valuation trade: the creator is buying the pullback in SoFi around $18, but near-term price action can still be dominated by high-beta de-risking. The immediate risk is that the stock keeps underperforming even if the operating story remains intact.
Over the next several quarters, the stock’s direction likely depends on whether SoFi keeps beating revenue and earnings expectations while holding 30%+ growth and expanding fee-based mix. If those numbers stay intact, the market can re-rate the shares higher; if growth or credit trends soften, the multiple can compress again.
Structurally, the thesis is that SoFi is evolving from a lending-heavy fintech into a more diversified financial platform with better margins and a more durable revenue mix. The long-run question is whether it can sustain best-in-class growth and credit discipline long enough to justify a premium fintech valuation.
SoFi's fee-based revenue mix has grown from 26% to 43% and will continue increasing, justifying a higher valuation multiple because fee-based revenue carries no lending risk.
The speaker shows the trend of fee-based revenue share rising and argues this improves revenue quality and warrants a higher multiple since fee revenue cannot be clawed back.
SoFi is deeply undervalued at 27x forward PE given its expected 40%+ EPS growth through 2028.
The speaker compares the forward P/E compression from 40x to 27x against management's guidance for 30%+ revenue growth and 40%+ EPS growth over multiple years.
SoFi's tangible book value per common share has gone up, meaning the company's equity raises and stock-based compensation have been accretive, not dilutive.
The speaker argues that despite dilution fears, tangible book value per share has risen, which he frames as accretive to shareholders.
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