Charlotte Mloud reviews why gold and silver have fallen even as Middle East tensions and oil prices surged. Her main explanation is that safe-haven bids in precious metals tend to be short-lived, while a stronger U.S. dollar and rising oil-related inflation concerns are currently working against them.
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Charlotte Mloud opens by framing the video as a weekly update on the mining industry and then narrows in on the recent move in gold and silver since the start of March. She says gold briefly broke 5,400 per ounce and silver moved past 96 per ounce when attacks on Iran from the U.S. and Israel first escalated, but both metals then faded. Her core thesis is that the initial geopolitical spike in precious metals has not held because these moves tend to be temporary, and because other macro forces are now weighing on prices. To support that view, she cites comments from Adrien Day of Adrien Day Asset Management, who argues that geopolitical events typically create only a very short-lived spike. He points to the Russia-Ukraine war as the classic example: gold rose ahead of the invasion, peaked when tanks crossed the border, and then reverted within a few months. Charlotte also says the U.S. …
Near term, the trade is dominated by headline risk around Hormuz and oil rather than a clean precious-metals breakout. If tensions stabilize, oil can retrace quickly and the dollar/metal move may unwind; if not, inflation and risk premia stay bid.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is choppy commodity trading with gold and silver needing a softer dollar or lower real-rate backdrop to regain traction. Sustained oil strength would keep stagflation chatter alive and could delay any clean Fed-driven relief for metals.
Structurally, the video points to a world where geopolitical shocks increasingly transmit through energy, inflation, and the dollar before they settle into broader asset pricing. Precious metals remain crisis hedges, but their long-run behavior still depends on whether shocks become persistent macro regime shifts or just brief spikes.
Gold and silver price spikes during geopolitical conflicts are typically short-lived, with gains often reversing within weeks.
The speaker cites historical precedent: gold spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine but returned to pre-war levels within 3 weeks.
The US dollar's strength is dampening precious metals prices, driven by the US being the world's top oil producer and oil trade being dollar-denominated.
The speaker notes the dollar hit its 2026 high and attributes its strength to the dollar's role in global oil trade and US oil production dominance.
If Iran can maintain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world oil markets will feel severe supply pressure within weeks, despite ample supply for the next 3 weeks.
Rick Rule explains that while current physical supply is fine for 3 weeks, the forward anticipation of a sustained closure would dramatically impact oil markets.
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