John Feneck argues gold and silver remain in a strong uptrend despite recent month-end shakeouts, and he expects gold to retest and exceed prior highs while silver targets much higher levels over time. He links the bullish case to geopolitical stress, especially the Iran conflict, and says the more actionable opportunity is now moving beyond large producers into developers, explorers, and specialist themes like tungsten.
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John Feneck’s core message is that the precious-metals trade is still early enough to own, even after a powerful move already took gold to roughly the $5,000 area and silver to around $121. He says the late-January selloff and month-end “smackdown” were temporary, that February showed constructive consolidation, and that the current geopolitical backdrop makes a retest and breakout to new highs more likely. His framing is emphatic: investors should not “get off the horse,” because he thinks the sector remains in an active bull phase rather than a late-cycle exhausted move. He supports that view with a mix of price-action and macro arguments. On the technical side, he points to gold’s ability to recover after the January 30 washout and says the shorts were unable to push prices lower at the February 27 month-end close. …
Tactically bullish on gold, silver, and select tungsten names while geopolitical headlines remain hot. Near term, the main risk is a fast reversal if the Iran shock fades or if month-end selling reappears.
Base case is continued strength in precious metals with rotation from large producers into developers, explorers, and niche critical-mineral names. The setup improves if gold holds above prior breakout zones and tungsten names get policy or permitting catalysts.
Structurally, the transcript argues that hard assets and strategic minerals are entering a longer favorable regime as geopolitical risk, supply concentration, and defense demand increase. It also implies a multi-year re-rating of mining equities if capital keeps rotating out of crowded tech winners.
Tungsten has no replacement, is 84% produced in China, and China has stopped exporting it, creating a strategic supply crisis.
Tungsten is used in armor, tanks, missiles, armor-piercing bullets; the last US mine closed in 2015; China and Russia are the dominant producers.
Gold is going to retest the 5,500–5,600 level and break through that level.
Positive price action in gold, the Iranian war situation creating uncertainty, and shorts unable to suppress the February month-end close.
Silver will reach 133, and possibly 150 to 175 per the partner's view.
Previous call for $100 was achieved, and 121 was close to 133 target; the sector is on fire and continuing to rally.
What are your updated thoughts on the gold price, given that you predicted $5,000 gold in January and it was achieved?
Gold eclipsed $5,500 to $5,600 after the January smackdown, and the February month-end close showed shorts couldn't hold it down. He sees gold retesting and breaking through those levels, especially with the Iran war situation. He argues people need gold in their portfolios because comfort with S&P/NASDAQ is dangerous — Apple and Tesla have made no money on a one-year chart.
Is the rotation from tech into gold and mining stocks actually happening yet, or is it still coming?
Yes, the rotation has already happened. GDX bottomed in September 2022 and has been rallying since then — easy money has been made in producing names. The next phase will be developers and explorers starting to move, which hasn't fully played out yet. He recommends owning some producers but also dropping down to smaller capitalization companies.
What is your updated outlook on the silver price?
Silver peaked around $120-$121, crashed January 30th, then consolidated in February without breaking support. He sees $50 as the new floor at $50-$54 unless a black swan hits. His target is $100-$133; his partner Durrett is at $150-$175. Silver is basing and should continue to rally.
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