Adrian Day argues that gold’s pullbacks are being bought quickly and that the broader bull market is still intact. He sees the current cycle as different from prior gold booms because central banks and Tether are price-agnostic buyers, while geopolitical shocks may create only brief spikes rather than the main trend.
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Adrian Day’s core view is that the gold bull market is not over and that recent dips have been bought too quickly to suggest the advance is finished. In his framing, the important change is not just price action but the buyer base: central banks and Tether are acting as large, largely price-insensitive buyers, which makes this cycle structurally different from past gold runs. He repeatedly emphasizes that the quick rebound after the late-January/early-February correction shows there is still substantial sidelined demand waiting for pullbacks. He contrasts the present cycle with earlier gold bull markets, especially the 1970s and the 2001-2011 period, noting that those episodes saw much deeper, more genuine corrections than anything seen so far. His explanation is that current structural buyers do not wait for cheaper prices the way discretionary investors do. …
Gold still looks buyable on dips, and the immediate risk is mostly a fade in any geopolitics-driven spike rather than a trend break. Near term, I’d treat pullbacks as the more actionable setup than chasing event headlines.
Base case is a continued grind higher in gold as long as reserve diversification and non-discretionary buying remain in force. The next few months should also favor selective rotation into copper over oil, while gold remains the core resource exposure.
The long-run implication is a shift away from dollar-centric reserves toward gold as a strategic asset. If that regime change persists, gold’s role in portfolios becomes more structural than cyclical, and resource underownership versus financial assets remains a broader theme.
Central banks and Tether are price-agnostic buyers of gold, which is meaningfully different from prior bull markets and prevents large corrections.
Speaker argues that non-economic buyers (central banks, Tether) buy regardless of price, suppressing normal correction patterns.
The run in gold is not over, and gold stocks remain very inexpensive.
Speaker cites AGO's price-to-free-cash-flow multiple being lower than its 5-year history despite rising gold price, and wide margins with all-in sustaining costs under $2,000.
Copper will see significantly higher prices over the next 5 years due to a structural supply deficit that cannot be resolved by new production.
Argues that even optimistic supply estimates and conservative demand estimates still show a deficit, and deficits in metals are resolved by higher prices. Cites long lead times (5+ years from shovel-ready to production) as the structural constraint.
What is sentiment like on the show floor at PDAC this year? What have you been seeing and hearing?
Adrien says he hasn't walked the floor much due to meetings, but notes the audience is good — not jammed as in past years, which he finds an interesting tell. It's certainly full and definitely more upbeat. Juniors in particular are upbeat because they've been able to raise money and are well cashed up, having conversations with seniors.
What are your thoughts on M&A activity in the mining sector and what the big companies are doing right now?
Adrien explains that large companies traditionally let juniors advance projects (permits, social license) and then take over when it fits their pipeline, not minding overpaying. But recently prices have moved so dramatically that there's a shift — companies feel urgency to buy sooner before prices rise further or someone else swoops in. He cites FAN as an example where El Dorado came in after everyone assumed Agnico would buy it.
Is there a danger that miners repeat the mistakes of the last bull market when they overpaid?
Adrien says we're not there yet by any means. He can't think of a single acquisition where he scratched his head wondering what they were thinking. However, he warns that human nature being what it is, pressure may eventually come from large institutional shareholders demanding companies deploy their cash rather than from the companies themselves.
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