Katie Stockton argues that the U.S. equity trend is still upward into 2026, but the slope should be less steep and more volatile. Near term, she is more cautious because Q4 momentum weakened, especially in NASDAQ 100 leadership and large-cap tech relative strength, though she still sees opportunities in names and sectors that are breaking out or bottoming. She emphasizes waiting for confirmation from price and momentum rather than anticipating a turn.
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Katie Stockton’s core view is that U.S. equities remain in a long-term uptrend, but the market has shifted into a choppier, less-violent phase with more frequent corrections. She repeatedly says her process is not about making a year-end target; it is about identifying the prevailing trend, judging where risk lies, and waiting for confirmation before acting. On that framework, she still sees the S&P 500 and major indices as structurally constructive, but with a slower slope than the post-April rally and a higher likelihood of volatility and consolidation. Her near-term stance is noticeably more cautious. …
Near term, the setup looks cautious: momentum has rolled over, the NASDAQ 100 is compressing, and a brief downside break looks a bit more likely than an upside resolution. Traders should wait for the triangle to resolve and for momentum to re-accelerate before adding risk aggressively.
Over the next few months, Stockton expects a still-bullish but more uneven advance, with rotation doing more of the work than broad index leadership. Confirmation would come from improving weekly/monthly momentum and clearer sector-relative strength in the new leaders; if that does not happen, the market likely stays range-bound and selective.
Structurally, she still sees a secular uptrend in U.S. equities, but leadership is becoming less concentrated and more stock-specific. That favors a regime where active rotation matters more, and where long-term winners, gold, and possibly Bitcoin remain key places to express durable trend exposure.
The long-term uptrend in US equities will persist into 2026, but the rally will be more gradual in slope and accompanied by more volatility than the 2025 rally from April onward.
Speaker cites a strong long-term uptrend in the S&P 500 and major indices but points to evidence of slowing momentum suggesting a shallower slope ahead.
The NASDAQ 100 has well-defined triangle formation boundaries at approximately 25,700 on the upside and 25,000 on the downside.
Speaker identifies specific price levels defining a converging triangle on the NASDAQ 100 chart.
XLK and the NASDAQ 100 relative to the S&P 500 show a distinct downtick in relative momentum, indicating tech is in a corrective mode.
Speaker observes that tech sector relative strength vs the S&P 500 has fallen from its strong uptrend into corrective territory.
Can you give us a high-level overview of how you're reading the technical setup for 2026?
Katie says their analysis isn't predictive — they focus on identifying the prevailing trend and understanding risk rather than giving year-end price targets. The long-term US equity uptrend persists but with evidence of slowing momentum, suggesting a less steep rally with more volatility and corrective phases, which she views as opportunity rather than a negative.
More volatility, less steep uptrend but still advancing — are you seeing any toppy indicators coming into the year?
Katie explains they have sell signals from DeMark indicators but very few are confirmed on a long-term basis. They pay attention to these signals only when confirmed by loss of momentum in stochastics or qualifiers from the DeMark indicators themselves. They don't anticipate confirmation, they react to it, and that confirmation hasn't happened yet.
Is the divergence between the long-term bullish view and short-term risk what you're talking about, or is there something more to it?
Katie clarifies the longer-term signals she mentioned were on monthly charts. The shorter-term view is more bearish due to loss of momentum distinct in Q4, visible in weekly MACD, stochastic oscillator downturns, and breakdowns below 50-day moving averages by market heavyweights. She doesn't think the corrective phase starting mid-October is finished and they lack evidence for an intermediate-term entry point.
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