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JD Vance Hopes Your Eyes Don't Work | Secret Podcast Preview

Channel: The Bulwark Published: 2026-01-09 19:15
The Bulwark

Sarah Longwell and JVL react in real time to video of a Minneapolis ICE shooting, arguing the administration is lying about what happened and that the shooting reflects a broader, dangerous normalization of paramilitary state violence. They also tie the incident to Ashley Babbitt, January 6, and what they see as a double standard on the right about political violence and accountability.

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Detailed summary

This episode is a raw, immediate reaction rather than a polished argument. The speakers open by saying they are coming to the mic shortly after watching cell phone footage from the Minneapolis shooting in which an unarmed woman, Renee Good, was killed. Their core thesis is that the video does not support the official version being pushed by JD Vance, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, and others, and that the administration is actively lying about the sequence of events. …

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Main takeaways

  1. The speakers believe the video contradicts the official account of the ICE shooting.
  2. They see the administration’s response as deliberate gaslighting rather than a mistaken interpretation.
  3. They argue the shooting reflects a broader normalization of political violence by the right.
  4. They view the right’s treatment of Ashley Babbitt as part of the same double standard.
  5. They think accountability for officials, not just frontline officers, is necessary.
  6. They see the incident as evidence of an expanding, less-trained paramilitary state power.

Market read by horizon

Short term

Immediate setup is political and reputational: the video sharpens scrutiny on the administration’s account of the shooting, and any new footage or official statement could swing the narrative quickly. The tactical risk is that partisan reactions lock in before the facts are fully adjudicated.

  • The immediate issue is whether the video undermines JD Vance’s claim that the ICE agent acted in self-defense.
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  • Public debate is likely to intensify around the exact sequence of events in the Minneapolis shooting.
  • The speakers think the official narrative is vulnerable because the footage is now widely viewable.
Mid term

Over the next several weeks, the likely path is a prolonged fight over evidence, law-enforcement conduct, and whether federal agencies are being used to shield allies. The view would be reinforced by opaque investigations and weakened by a transparent, fact-pattern-consistent review.

  • Over the next few weeks, the story could become another test of whether institutions correct false narratives or entrench them.
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  • The speakers expect continued arguments over ICE tactics, training, and the use of masked federal personnel in cities.
  • If there is no transparent investigation, they think the episode will deepen distrust of federal law enforcement.
Long term

Structurally, the speakers argue this is about the normalization of partisan state violence and the abandonment of older limited-government instincts on the right. If that regime shift persists, accountability and institutional trust become the lasting casualty rather than one isolated shooting.

  • The structural issue they highlight is the erosion of limited-government conservatism in favor of accepting coercive state power.
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  • They see a lasting regime risk in politically aligned security forces being used against domestic opponents.
  • If their framing is right, the durable implication is that legal standards for force become partisan rather than neutral.
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Key claims (7)

BEARISH political violence Minneapolis ICE shooting

The official account of the Minneapolis ICE shooting is false and contradicts what the video shows.

Both speakers say the administration is lying and that the footage does not support the self-defense narrative.

BEARISH police use of force Minneapolis ICE shooting

The woman was trying to leave, and the officer was not in obvious life-threatening danger when he shot her.

They repeatedly argue the car contact was not lethal and that she was attempting to get away.

BEARISH institutional trust Kristi Noem

The administration’s immediate response was to smear the victim as a domestic terrorist rather than investigate carefully.

They say Trump and Noem rushed to condemn her and lie about the facts.

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Speakers

SPEAKER Sarah Longwell INTERVIEWER Interviewer (The Bulwark)

Interview (4 Q&A)

opening reaction

Sarah, do you want to go first?

Sarah says she is angry about the incident, describing two layers: the avoidable tragedy itself, and the lying about it by officials like JD Vance. She discusses how the video shows the woman trying to get away, and how the administration is gaslighting about what happened.

political trajectory

Do you want to go any darker on where this is heading?

legal accountability

How interested are you in full legal accountability should the opposition party ever retake control of the executive branch?

Sarah says she thinks accountability should target officials like Christy Noem who are creating the circumstances, and draws a parallel to January 6 where they prosecuted the followers but not Trump himself. She agrees that accountability is necessary to bring the country back.

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Where this transcript pushes against consensus

  • The speakers assume the video clearly disproves the official story, but they acknowledge some ambiguity about exact contact between car and officer.
  • They argue the shooting was unjustified, yet they also concede split-second encounters can lead to terrible mistakes.
  • Their call for broad post-regime prosecutions is morally forceful but politically and legally underspecified.
  • They suggest the right uniformly endorses violence against enemies, which may overgeneralize some supporters’ views.
  • They describe the agent’s conduct as obviously criminal or malicious without laying out a fully developed evidentiary record.

Topics

ICE shootingJD VanceKristi NoemMinneapolispolitical violencestate powerAshley BabbittJanuary 6accountabilityparamilitary forces

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