An emerging-markets fund manager argues that the long underperformance of EM versus the U.S. is reversing because the U.S. has become less exceptional, while many EM countries have improved governance, geopolitics, and market discipline. He is bullish on China, Taiwan semis, India selectively, Mexico, Brazil, and parts of the AI/robotics supply chain, but stresses that stock selection must focus on cash flow, governance, and companies that are not likely to be disrupted by AI.
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The core thesis is that emerging markets are at a genuine inflection point. The guest argues that EMs have spent roughly 15 years underperforming because the U.S. was exceptional, U.S. mega-cap tech dominated the innovation cycle, and many EM governments made destructive policy mistakes. He now thinks the setup is changing: the U.S. is weaker on tariffs, deficits, and political pressure on the Fed, while many EM countries have learned from past crises and are better governed. In his view, the market’s old habit of ignoring EM is now less justified. He spends a lot of time explaining that EM performance comes in long cycles. He contrasts the 1990s crisis era, the 2000s commodity boom after China joined the WTO, and the last 15 years of U.S. dominance. …
Near term, the setup favors selected EM exposure if U.S. policy volatility and dollar weakness continue, with Taiwan headlines and tariff noise the main tactical risks. The most actionable part of the thesis is the rotation away from crowded U.S. mega-cap leadership into higher-quality EM hardware and commodity-linked names.
Over the next few months, the base case is a gradual EM re-rating led by countries with improving governance, trade positioning, or AI supply-chain relevance. The thesis weakens if the U.S. dollar stabilizes, if geopolitical risk spikes in Taiwan, or if EM reform stories fail to translate into earnings and cash flow.
Structurally, he is betting that the next major industrial cycle will reward Asian hardware, tangible assets, and disciplined capital allocation more than U.S. software narratives. If that regime persists, EM stops being a purely cyclical trade and becomes a lasting source of alpha for investors who can navigate governance risk.
La révolution de l'intelligence artificielle va complètement changer la manière de choisir les titres en marchés émergents, en donnant la priorité à la question de savoir si une entreprise sera gagnante ou perdante face à l'IA.
Le speaker explique que l'IA est une révolution industrielle comparable à Internet, et qu'il faut revoir complètement l'approche d'investissement.
Les États-Unis vont moins bien aujourd'hui qu'avant, ce qui est un point d'inflexion favorable aux marchés émergents.
L'orateur énumère les problèmes américains (droits de douane mal gérés, pression sur l'indépendance de la Fed) comme facteur structurel qui redirige l'attention vers les émergents.
TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix cannot be disrupted by AI because they are upstream tangible asset manufacturers with monopolistic positions.
Unlike software companies whose value can be destroyed by AI, these chip manufacturers literally build physical products with un-replicable factories.
What is your process for analyzing and selecting stocks?
Xavier explique qu'il a une super équipe chez Carmignac, notamment une équipe obligataire qui aide à comprendre la macro et les balances des paiements, une co-gérante expérimentée (Naomi) qui a rejoint l'équipe, et des analystes très bons sur le terrain en Chine et en Inde.
Concrètement, c'est quoi ta méthode pour analyser puis sélectionner des valeurs ?
Xavier explique qu'il a une super équipe chez Carmignac, notamment une équipe obligataire qui aide à comprendre la macro et les balances des paiements, une co-gérante expérimentée (Naomi) qui a rejoint l'équipe, et des analystes très bons sur le terrain en Chine et en Inde.
Why invest in emerging markets now, after years of underperformance?
He argues this is a genuine inflection point: the U.S. is weakening somewhat, while emerging markets have improved after years of discipline learned from past crises. He also says many emerging economies are now better governed and less likely to sabotage themselves than in the past.
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