Interview on BFMTV with criminologist Alain Bauer about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and Donald Trump. Bauer argues the U.S. is effectively running a filtered blockade from the Gulf rather than the strait itself, that the move is legally arguable under maritime law, and that the immediate danger is a potential confrontation if a Chinese tanker tries to force passage. He then broadens into a political reading of Trump as a strategist who uses words, provocation, and ambiguity as tools, not as random erratic behavior.
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This BFMTV segment is an interview, centered first on the reported “blocus du détroit d’Ormuz” and then on Alain Bauer’s book about Donald Trump. Bauer’s core thesis on Hormuz is that the U.S. is not literally blockading the narrow strait in the most exposed sense, but positioning forces in the Gulf to create a filtering barrier with lower military risk. In his view, this is a pragmatic military setup designed to buy time, sort traffic, and deter escalation, especially around vessels with difficult flags or sensitive nationalities such as Chinese or Indian ships. He leans heavily on maritime-law arguments, saying the legal situation is less clear-cut than the headline “illegal blockade” suggests. …
Near term, the market risk is an escalation headline out of Hormuz, especially if a Chinese-linked tanker tests the screening posture. The setup is tactically fragile: any boarding, standoff, or forced turnback could reprice oil and shipping risk quickly.
Over weeks to months, the base case is a bargaining-heavy stand-off rather than an all-out shootout, with the key variable being whether the filtering posture becomes a durable de facto chokepoint. Confirmation would come from disciplined command-chain behavior and continued, if uneasy, negotiation rather than an incident-driven spiral.
Structurally, the transcript argues for a world where control of maritime chokepoints, nuclear latency, and political signaling matter more than formal declarations. The durable regime implication is persistent great-power competition around sea lanes and leverage, not a clean return to stable postwar trade norms.
The U.S. is effectively implementing a filtering blockade in the Gulf rather than at the Strait of Hormuz itself.
The speaker says the Americans are not blocking the strait directly but positioning forces in the Gulf to control and inspect traffic more safely.
The main issue is the 440 kilograms of enriched uranium, not future enrichment.
The speaker says the challenge is already the existing 440 kilos because recovering them would save a lot of time.
Trump's handling of disputes is often strategically rational rather than erratic, and that rationality is being underestimated by observers.
The speaker argues that what looks like chaos is actually a deliberate way to disorient opponents and achieve strategic goals.
Is this a real blockade, or not?
He says it is a blockade, but not at the strait itself; it is positioned in the Gulf to create a filtering zone with less risk. He argues the placement is pragmatic and intended to buy time and manage vessels intelligently rather than confront them head-on.
How should the fact that the ships are hundreds of kilometers from the strait be interpreted?
He interprets it as a pragmatic military choice: the Americans are avoiding unnecessary risk to sailors and ships while keeping the option to stop or inspect vessels in a safer location. He also says the move reflects legal and operational flexibility under international law.
What would happen if a Chinese tanker tried to pass the American blockade?
He says that would be the real test, comparable to the Cuban missile crisis, where a passage attempt could trigger a dangerous confrontation but might still be defused by last-minute diplomacy. He expects higher-level decision-makers to intervene rather than leaving the choice to the ship's captain.
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