Éric Zemmour défend une lecture très “rapport de force” du conflit au Moyen-Orient, approuve la ligne de force de Trump sur l’intérieur américain mais critique son aventurisme extérieur, et juge qu’une intervention terrestre serait une erreur. Il élargit vite vers ses thèmes récurrents: critique du droit international, dénonciation de l’immigration de masse, attaques contre la gauche identitaire de Mélenchon, et plaidoyer pour des coupes budgétaires plutôt que des aides carburant ou des chèques. L’entretien est aussi très politique: il soutient la liberté d’expression, conteste des condamnations passées, et laisse planer le doute sur sa propre candidature tout en mettant en avant Sarah Knafo.
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Éric Zemmour ouvre l’entretien sur la guerre au Moyen-Orient et sur Donald Trump en opposant deux visions: d’un côté, le discours moral du pape Léon XIV appelant à la paix; de l’autre, sa propre conviction que la politique internationale relève d’abord de la force. Il insiste sur le fait qu’il ne faut pas surestimer l’idée d’un conflit “comme au temps de Philippe le Bel”, rappelle que le pape n’est plus une puissance politique, puis affirme explicitement qu’en matière de souveraineté et de guerre, “il n’y a plus de droit international”, seulement des rapports de force. …
Near term, the actionable setup is the oil/carburant shock from Middle East tensions and the risk that government support proves too small if prices stay elevated. The immediate market/policy risk is reactive, short-lived fiscal tinkering rather than a decisive response.
Over the next several weeks or months, the base case is continued pressure on French households and public finances if the external shock persists, with debates shifting toward who pays and which taxes get cut. Confirmation would come from persistent fuel prices and politically credible austerity measures; otherwise the view weakens.
The structural thesis is that sovereign force, not international rules, is the governing logic of geopolitics, while France faces a longer identity-and-fiscal regime shift. If his view is right, the durable implications are more border control, lower tolerance for diffuse spending, and a harsher political environment for centrist multilateralism.
International law is largely irrelevant for sovereignty, war, and peace, which are governed by power balances.
He distinguishes technical uses of international law from hard security issues, where he says only force relations matter.
Sending ground troops to overthrow the Iranian regime would be a mistake and would likely repeat past failures in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan.
He argues that every prior attempt to change regimes by sending troops ended in catastrophe, so doing so again would be an error.
He still believes he can reach the second round of the presidential election.
He says he would not enter the race if he did not think he could make the runoff.
How does he view Pope Leo XIV's call for peace in the Middle East conflict?
He says he respects the pope and sees a call for peace as natural to the pope's role and the Church's tradition. But he argues the pope is a moral, not political, power and says this conflict should not be overstated.
Is he supportive of Trump's conduct regarding the Iran war and possible regime change?
He says the outcome is not yet knowable and depends on whether Trump succeeds or fails. He adds that regime change by bombing alone seems improbable, and that sending ground troops would be a mistake and a betrayal of Trump's own political line.
Does he prefer Trump's force-based strategy over one centered on international law and institutions?
He says he does not really believe in international law for questions of sovereignty, war, and peace. In his view, those issues are governed by power relations.
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