Michael Oliver argues silver, gold, and the miners are in a powerful base rather than a top, with silver’s recent drop being a sharp but non-damaging interruption. He expects a possible Fed cut and a brief stock-market lift first, but thinks that setup ultimately supports monetary metals and may precede broader financial stress.
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Michael Oliver’s core thesis is that the precious-metals advance is not finished: silver’s violent pullback was a setback inside a larger breakout, not the end of the move. He repeatedly frames the action in momentum terms rather than simple price targets, arguing that silver broke out versus gold on a relative-performance basis in November and that this signal has not been negated. Gold and the miners, in his view, also returned to or near prior highs without the kind of failure that typically marks a major top, so the market looks like it is basing and preparing for another leg higher. He ties that view to broader macro stress. On the financial side, he says parts of the banking system, including several large banks and major credit-card companies, are already showing unacceptable momentum deterioration. …
Near term, the setup is for a possible Fed-driven relief rally in risk assets, but Oliver wants that strength to be used as confirmation rather than chased. The immediate risk is a failure in recent silver lows or a sharper break in financials before the metals advance resumes.
Over the next few weeks to months, his base case is that silver, gold, and especially miners continue to rebuild momentum and push to new highs if the breakout holds. The view weakens if silver loses the recent post-shakeout floor or if the expected equity bounce never materializes.
Structurally, he sees a regime of currency debasement and debt monetization that should keep favoring real monetary assets over fiat claims. If bonds no longer work as a crisis hedge, gold and silver become even more central as the alternative store of value.
Silver has completed its correction and remains in a long-term breakout relative to gold.
He says the silver-to-gold spread broke out in November and that prior instances led to a multi-quarter silver outperformance run, while the recent drop did not damage long-term momentum.
The recent pullback in silver versus gold did not invalidate the November relative-strength breakout.
The speaker says silver broke out against gold in November and that the late-January setback did not break the spread down, so the relative trend remains intact.
Gold and silver have not made a long-term technical top, and current calls for tops are premature.
The speaker says his long-term technical work shows no top in either metal and argues that repeated top calls have historically occurred before major bull-market advances continued.
What are the ramifications of the financial sector's weakness for the economy, banks, and the broader system?
Michael Oliver says the Fed is increasingly focused on unemployment and now has a fresh excuse to act, while banks and major credit card companies are breaking down technically. He thinks this creates pressure for an unexpected rate cut that could briefly prop up markets, especially financials.
How does the current setup compare with the 2007-2008 financial crisis?
He argues the pattern is similar because financials can deteriorate before the S&P tops, just as they did in 2007. He says a late rally in the S&P, possibly helped by a surprise rate cut, could be a warning rather than a sign of safety.
What is your view on precious metals, especially after the recent silver selloff?
He says the silver correction was expected and did not damage the longer-term momentum trend. The breakout in silver versus gold still looks intact over a multi-quarter horizon, and silver has already rebounded materially from the low.
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