Paul from Everything Money says he is buying selectively in an expensive market by focusing on price versus intrinsic value, not on headlines or stock-price momentum. He highlights Adobe as a recent outright buy, argues Microsoft looks underappreciated despite AI-spending fears, and shows how he would use cash-secured puts on Microsoft and Meta at lower entry prices.
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This is a portfolio/process video rather than a market-news recap. The speaker’s core thesis is that investors should ignore what stocks have done recently and instead buy only when price is sufficiently below estimated value. He repeatedly says the channel is about teaching a valuation process, not giving stock tips, and frames his recent activity as a mix of outright buying and waiting to sell cash-secured puts at better prices. The most explicit recent move he mentions is buying more Adobe after earnings. He then uses Microsoft as the main example of why a stock can be unpopular even when the underlying business still looks strong. He says Microsoft is down about 20% year-to-date while the broader market is up, and attributes the weakness to two fears: heavy AI infrastructure spending and the possibility that AI agents could disrupt Microsoft’s traditional software licensing model. …
Tactically, the setup is to wait for Microsoft and Meta to pull into the speaker’s strike/entry zones and then sell cash-secured puts rather than chase strength. The risk is that the stocks rebound before assignment, leaving only modest premium income.
Over the next few months, he expects quality large-cap platforms to remain buyable if growth stays resilient and AI spending starts to show up in revenue. If Microsoft’s cloud and AI figures continue improving, he thinks the market will gradually look past the current fear premium.
Structurally, the video argues that long-term returns come from buying enduring businesses only when valuation offers protection. The lasting regime view is that disciplined, cash-flow-aware investors can exploit both hype and panic without needing to predict every headline.
Microsoft's shares are worth about 350 on the speaker's valuation framework, so he would add it to his watchlist there and potentially buy or sell cash-secured puts.
He runs a discounted cash flow-style analysis with conservative growth and multiple assumptions and concludes the stock becomes attractive at roughly 350.
Microsoft is not a dying business because its cloud and AI revenue are still growing strongly.
He cites 30% cloud revenue growth, a 37 billion dollar AI annual run rate, and continued Office 365/user growth as evidence that the business remains healthy.
Selling cash-secured puts on Microsoft at the speaker's target level allows him to get paid while waiting to buy the stock at a lower price.
He explains that if the put expires worthless he keeps the premium, and if assigned he buys Microsoft at an effective discount to his target.
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