A systematic-investing roundtable focused on how AI, US dollar weakness, shifting global risk perceptions, and persistent commodity trends are reshaping CTA opportunities. The speakers argue that trend following is benefiting from real regime change, especially in gold, non-US equities, and some commodities, while debating whether liquid-alts product design and short-term trend models add value or just cost.
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This episode of Top Traders Unplugged’s Systematic Investor series is a broad market and strategy discussion between host Nils Larsen and guests Andrew Beer and Tom Basso/Roble (as transcribed). The conversation opens with AI and its implications for investing, business processes, and even podcast production. Andrew says he is fascinated by the shift in AI narratives and sees AI as deeply disruptive but likely supportive of trend following because it will create real economic change. Nils and Andrew also discuss how AI could improve allocator diligence and asset allocation, but Andrew stresses that human relationships still matter in asset management. The discussion then turns to a major 2025 theme: the weakening of US exceptionalism. …
Tactically, the market still rewards exposure to the few trends actually working, especially metals, non-US equities, and selected commodities, but those trades are vulnerable to abrupt reversals and de-risking cycles.
Over the next few months, the base case is a continued re-rating of US risk versus the rest of the world, with trend-followers likely to do well if leadership stays concentrated and persistent. The setup weakens if dollar strength returns or if recent winners turn choppy and broad markets lose direction.
The durable regime shift is toward a more multipolar, less US-centric investment world where AI, geopolitics, and commodity re-pricing create recurring dislocations. That is structurally favorable to systematic macro and trend strategies that can adapt faster than discretionary consensus.
AI is becoming a profound and practical force in investing, not just a buzzword.
Andrew says he is fascinated by how the AI narrative is shifting and cites an AI-generated voice video as evidence of how real the technology already is.
AI may strengthen, not eliminate, the value of personal relationships in asset management.
Andrew argues that asset management remains a people business and that allocators will not simply hand fund selection to AI.
Global investors are reassessing US exceptionalism and US risk after 2025 market moves and dollar weakness.
Tom says investors are increasingly shifting away from the US dollar and thinking differently about American assets.
How is AI changing your thinking about your business and strategy?
Andrew says he is fascinated by AI and is realizing he needs to think more actively about where it fits into his business as it evolves. He adds that the pace and power of change feel profound, and that this disruption could ultimately be positive for trend following because real economic change helps the strategy.
Will AI replace the human connection in asset management and conference networking?
Andrew argues asset management is a people business and that allocators are unlikely to let AI pick hedge funds for them. He thinks AI will be leveraged, but not to replace human relationships, and that conferences and in-person meetings will still matter.
What does AI-based asset allocation suggest about managed futures?
Andrew says an AI-driven asset allocation analysis unexpectedly included managed futures as a core element for meeting the investor's objectives. He takes that as evidence that the technology may help sophisticated allocators cut through noise and better understand the space.
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