Scaramucci: Bitcoin Rally is Coming

The core thesis is straightforward: Bitcoin is in a familiar four-year-cycle phase and, in his view, that points to a rally beginning in late Q4 2026 and extending into early 2027. He frames the current tape as consistent with prior cycle behavior rather than a broken trend, and he says the market is now in the kind of apathetic, under-owned state that often precedes a stronger move. His supporting case is mostly cycle-based and sentiment-based. He says Bitcoin’s RSI is at an “all-time low,” that “no one cares about it anymore,” and that the market is thin enough that “a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price.” He points to the week’s move from roughly 61 to 67 as evidence that even incremental demand can lift price. …

1. Late-2026 / early-2027 is the stated window for the next Bitcoin rally.
2. He sees the current phase as classic four-year-cycle apathy, not structural failure.
3. Low RSI and thin liquidity are presented as the key ingredients for a sharp move.
4. He explicitly says he owns a lot of Bitcoin and is “talking my book.”
5. He believes Michael Saylor’s Strategy has a strong balance sheet and is not in danger.

• The thesis relies heavily on historical cycle repetition; no independent evidence is offered that the four-year pattern will persist this time.
• He cites RSI and apathy as bullish, but does not explain why those signals should override macro or regulatory risks.
• The timing is fairly specific, yet the explanation for why late 2026 is the inflection point is not developed.
• The comparison to Micron and the thin-market argument are directional, but not quantified in a way that can be tested from the transcript alone.