Clem Chambers argues the market has already shifted into a bear phase and that the Iran/US geopolitical situation is too unpredictable to keep taking risk, so he has gone to 99.5% cash. He says gold, silver, and other military/precious-metals proxies are being sold in a broad risk-off move, but thinks re-entry opportunities may emerge once the situation clarifies.
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This episode is a conversation between Ivan on Wall Street Bullion and guest Clem Chambers. The discussion centers on the Iran/US conflict, market volatility, and the implications for precious metals and risk assets. Chambers says he exited the market aggressively after Trump’s latest ultimatum on Iran, describing the environment as unpredictable enough that he does not want to ‘play this particular game of chicken in a fog.’ He repeatedly emphasizes that politics is not something he can forecast well, even if he believes he can read market structure. A large part of the discussion is about whether the market has entered a bear regime. Chambers rejects the idea that a bear market only begins after a 20% drawdown, arguing that a bear market starts when the trend breaks and the market begins heading down. …
Tactically, this is a wait-and-see market: the current setup is headline-driven, crowded into cash, and vulnerable to sharp moves on any Iran/Trump escalation or de-escalation. Until the geopolitical path is clearer, the bias is defensive rather than opportunistic.
Over the next few weeks, the market likely remains in a bear-tilted, risk-off regime unless the tape recovers its prior trend and the Middle East situation stops worsening. Re-entry is more likely to favor staggered buys in metals and other beaten-down assets once the uncertainty premium fades.
Structurally, the transcript argues that unstable Middle East geopolitics remain a durable macro risk and that precious metals still have a long-run role as stores of value and crisis hedges. The broader lesson is that regime shifts are best handled through patience, cash, and phased re-risking rather than headline chasing.
Trump’s latest ultimatum on Iran was enough to push Chambers almost entirely into cash.
He says he went to 99.5% cash after Trump said there would be another 10 days.
The S&P 500 has broken its prior uptrend and is now in a downward trend.
He cites the chart and says it is no longer in the old trend but in a new downtrend.
A bear market begins when the trend turns down, not when a 20% drawdown is already visible.
He argues media definitions are backward and says the bear market starts at the top and during the fall.
Where do we stand right now, Clem?
Clem says he cannot give a good answer because the market and politics are too unpredictable; he has already gone mostly to cash.
What are your thoughts on the Strait, Iran’s toll threats, fertilizer prices, and food inflation?
He thinks supply chains will adapt, but a destabilizing Iran in a major energy region is chronically dangerous and could create a serious mess.
What are your thoughts on precious metals and whether people are selling gold and silver into cash?
He says the market is broadly de-risking into cash, so gold and even military-related stocks are being sold despite their crisis appeal.
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