Michael Boutros of StoneX gives a short multi-time-frame technical read on USD/JPY, arguing the trend is still constructive but sitting directly beneath major resistance and intervention risk. He highlights 161.68–161.95 as the near-term cap, 160.36–160.73 as key support on pullbacks, and says a close above 161.95 would open 163.33 and then 164. He also flags Thursday’s PCE inflation report as the main macro catalyst for the Fed outlook.
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This is a focused USD/JPY technical update from Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at StoneX. His core message is that dollar-yen remains in a constructive uptrend, but the pair is now pressing into a major resistance zone where intervention risk could become the dominant near-term issue. He frames the trade as still favoring the bulls on momentum, while warning that the market is “ever-present” on intervention watch and that reports of Treasury Secretary Bessent speaking with Japanese officials keep the market on edge. Boutros anchors the immediate setup around a clearly defined resistance band: 161.68 to 161.95, described as the convergence of channel resistance, the 2024 swing high, and the prior high-day close. He notes that the breakout already occurred above 160.29 into 160.73, and says price has been extending off that base for weeks. …
USD/JPY looks tactically bullish while it holds above 160.36–160.73, but it is pressing into a zone where intervention headlines can cause abrupt reversals. The next few sessions hinge on whether price can clear 161.95 or stalls first.
The base case is continued yen weakness and higher USD/JPY unless intervention pressure or softer U.S. inflation derails the breakout. Confirmation would come from a sustained close above 161.95; failure there keeps the pair range-sensitive near resistance.
The structural read is that yen weakness remains the default until Japan’s policy and inflation backdrop changes meaningfully. Intervention may slow the move, but the transcript implies it is not enough by itself to reverse a broader regime of dollar strength versus the yen.
USD/JPY will extend higher toward 163.33 and 164.00 if it closes above 161.95, with pullbacks limited to 160.36-160.73.
Technical analysis of the 161.8% extension of the range breakout off the April lows and of the fiscal year range breakout.
The Japanese yen intervention threat is ever-present and there are reports that Treasury Secretary Bessant discussed possible coordinated intervention with Japanese officials.
Citing reports of U.S.-Japan discussions on coordinated intervention to support the yen, keeping markets on edge.
Thursday's PCE data will be critical for the Fed outlook and is expected to show inflation ticking up from 3.3% to 3.4%.
Citing the upcoming PCE release as the major event risk of the week and referencing the Fed's updated SEP which revised inflation expectations upward for 2026.
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