Gary Wagner argues gold and silver have likely completed a corrective ABC phase and are starting a new impulsive advance, with gold potentially exceeding its prior high above 5,600 over the next few months. Near term, he says gold could still chop or top out around current levels, while oil’s decline and dollar weakness remain key cross-asset drivers.
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This interview centers on the relationship between gold, silver, crude oil, and the U.S. dollar, with host David Lin pressing Gary Wagner on whether gold’s rapid rebound is sustainable or just a double-top / correction. Wagner rejects the idea that gold’s recent move is a classic double top and instead frames the price action through Elliott Wave theory: he says gold completed an ABC correction after its January all-time high above 5,600, then restarted a new motive wave sequence. In his view, the selloff from 5,600 to roughly 4,100 was a sharp corrective move, and the recovery back above 4,800 is consistent with a new upward impulse. …
Tactically, gold is still extended and could chop near current levels, but the burden of proof is on bears unless a clear reversal forms. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz remain the immediate catalysts that could alter the next leg.
Over the next few weeks to months, the base case in the interview is that gold resumes its uptrend, with 5,200 as an interim checkpoint and 5,600 as the bigger test. The view weakens if the rebound stalls into a failed breakout or if the oil/dollar backdrop flips against metals.
Structurally, the interview assumes gold is in the middle of a larger bull regime, not at its end. If that framing is right, precious metals can keep making higher highs even amid intermittent volatility and risk-on cross-asset behavior.
Gold’s recent drop was a corrective move, not a breakdown of the larger bull trend.
Wagner repeatedly describes the decline as an ABC correction after a major rally and says the new motive phase has started.
Gold should eventually exceed the prior all-time high above 5,600 and may do so within roughly 3 to 6 months.
He gives explicit upside targets based on his Elliott-wave count.
Gold is unusually trading like a risk-on asset by rising with stocks and falling when oil spikes.
The guest directly characterizes the relationship as the opposite of a normal safe-haven pattern.
Can you explain why gold has been trading alongside stocks and showing an inverse relationship with crude oil this year?
Gary says it's not explainable by common sense A+B=C logic. He attributes it to the uncertainty factor. Normally higher crude means more inflation which is bullish for gold, but we're seeing the inverse — crude down and gold up. He adds that dollar weakness is also pushing and pulling gold. If the truce holds, he expects a normal relationship to re-emerge.
What is a normal relationship between crude oil and gold supposed to look like?
Gary explains that a normal relationship is: higher crude oil leads to more inflationary pressures, which provides bullish headwinds for gold. Conversely, if oil goes down it tends to provide tailwinds to gold, stifling the upside move. So seeing crude down and gold up simultaneously is the inverse of normal.
Has gold found a bottom after its decline from $5,200 to $4,100?
Gary uses his Elliott Wave count to explain. He labels the move from the January high above $5,600 as an ABC correction: A-wave down, B-wave back up, and C-wave at $4,100 concluding the correction. He believes that ended the correction and a new motive phase has started. The fifth wave should eventually conclude above $5,600 over the next 3-6 months.
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