David Lin interviews John Feneck about the precious-metals selloff, why he still thinks gold and silver remain in a bull market, and how he is reallocating across critical minerals and AI-adjacent names. Feneck argues the recent weakness was driven by war-related shock, margin calls, and sentiment washout, not a broken long-term thesis, while also flagging that a broader equity/tech “smackdown” could hit within 9 months into Q1.
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John Feneck’s core message is that the gold/silver bull market is still intact despite a sharp drawdown, but the path has become much more volatile because geopolitics, the Fed, and Trump are now major swing factors. He repeatedly says the precious-metals complex was hit by a war-driven liquidation and margin-call cascade, and that the weakness is more about an “unhealthy” unwind of hot money than a completed top. In his view, gold and silver are still supported by central-bank buying, billionaire buying, and a changed paradigm versus 2011–2012. He ties the selloff to a sequence of shocks: a January 30 silver collapse, then a March 3 “rug pull” right after the war reopened the market, followed by months of uncertainty around Trump’s actions. …
Near term, metals look vulnerable to more chop until the war/Fed narrative settles, while equities remain exposed to a crowded AI/passive trade. The actionable risk is that an earlier Fed shock or fresh geopolitical event could hit both precious metals and broad indexes at once.
Over the next few months, the base case is a shaky but still intact metals bull market if central-bank demand and institutional targets keep holding, with possible stabilization after the liquidation phase ends. If rates, war, or policy surprises intensify, he expects the current equity leadership to wobble and capital to rotate back toward hard assets.
Structurally, he sees a regime where gold, silver, and strategic minerals benefit from geopolitical fragmentation, supply-chain insecurity, and persistent official-sector buying. He also thinks passive equity concentration is a durable vulnerability that will matter whenever the next full-cycle drawdown arrives.
Gold and silver are still in a long-term bull market despite the correction.
The speaker cites billionaires buying, central bank purchases, silver's industrial use as a critical mineral, and argues the paradigm has changed compared to 2011-2012.
The current gold and silver correction is unhealthy and driven by forced liquidation and margin calls, not a fundamental end to the bull market.
The speaker distinguishes between normal corrections (20% in GDX) and the current situation (35-40% in GDX), attributing the latter to margin calls and hot money being margined out.
The stock market will experience a significant correction or smackdown within the next 9 months into Q1 2026.
Speaker argues that the 'set it and forget it' approach to S&P and NASDAQ will eventually fail, predicting a major downturn possibly triggered by the Fed, Trump, or war.
Why is sentiment so weak right now in the precious metal space, and is this the start of a bigger sell-off?
Fenick explains sentiment is weak because of the war. He describes two rug pulls in Q1 — the January 30th silver sell-off (34% in one day led by shorts) and the March 3rd liquidation after the war started, which created margin calls that fed on themselves through March. Mining stocks got crushed worse than typical corrections.
Why is this not over? Why are we still in a bull market for gold and silver?
Fenick says 2011-2012 cannot be compared to 2025-2026 because the paradigm has changed. Billionaires are buying precious metals, central banks are buying hand over fist, silver is now classified as a critical mineral with over 60% industrial use, and Trump is a geopolitical wild card creating ongoing uncertainty.
How come periods of volatility that should be positive for gold had the exact reverse happen this year?
Fenick thinks gold and silver got ahead of themselves with too much hot money that got margined out. January 30th silver sell-off was led by shorts, March 3rd was a liquidation that fed on itself through March and April. He calls it an unwinding — an unhealthy correction rather than a healthy one.
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