Michael Bro of StoneX says EUR/USD has broken to fresh yearly lows and is now testing a key support zone around 1.1355 after losing the June opening range and the lower pitchfork parallel. He argues the near-term bias remains bearish unless the pair reclaims 1.1482/1.1492, while tomorrow’s PCE inflation print and the Fed-rate outlook are the main macro catalysts that could either extend or interrupt the dollar-driven move.
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Michael Bro, a senior market analyst with StoneX, gives a quick multi-time-frame bearish update on EUR/USD. His core thesis is that the pair has broken down through an important support cluster and is now in a momentum-driven decline toward lower support levels. He says the market is making “fresh yearly lows,” that the pair has broken support he had been watching for weeks, and that the move is accelerating after losing a key zone around 1.1355. He frames the setup as one where the immediate thrust still favors the bears, with the tape showing a strong downside follow-through rather than a clean consolidation. On the technical side, he builds the case across the daily and 4-hour charts. On the daily, he says this would be the fifth down day out of six, with the move already more than 2.8% lower off the June high. …
Near term, EUR/USD is tactical bearish unless 1.1482–1.1492 is recovered; the immediate risk is that tomorrow’s PCE print reinforces the break and extends the dollar move.
Over the next several weeks, the pair likely stays under pressure if inflation data keeps Fed-hike odds elevated. A softer run of PCE and labor data would be the main way to force a reversal of this base case.
Structurally, the transcript frames EUR/USD as vulnerable whenever U.S. inflation keeps the Fed from easing. If the market continues to believe rates may need to go higher, the dollar can stay bid against the euro for longer.
A weekly close below 1355 would keep the focus weighted to the downside, with next targets at 1275 and 11214.
The speaker identifies 1355 as the 382 retracement of the 2025 advance and the April high close, and says a close below confirms bearish momentum.
Euro dollar is breaking to fresh yearly lows with a break of support at 1482, and the decline is accelerating.
The speaker cites a break below the 1618 extension from the April decline, confluent with the median line from the January high, as the reason for the bearish acceleration.
A hotter-than-expected PCE print tomorrow could cause July rate hike expectations to creep higher.
The speaker notes that markets price ~70% chance of a Fed hike by September, and a hot PCE could pull that timing forward to July.
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