Razan Hilal argues crude oil is at a technical inflection point: a bearish break below 76 would open downside toward 67, while reclaiming the 88-93 resistance band could trigger a move back toward 100-115 and potentially higher. The view is driven mainly by price action, with geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz creating the backdrop.
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In this StoneX market update, Razan Hilal says crude oil is best understood through price action rather than headlines, even though geopolitical news around the Strait of Hormuz has been driving intraday swings. She says her prior longer-term framework on crude separated the chart into bullish, neutral-to-bullish, and bearish regimes using key zones, with the 88-93 area as a major overhead barrier and the 76-74 area as an important bearish support zone tied to last year’s Middle East conflict highs. She notes that oil briefly broke above the 2023 highs on news about the Strait of Hormuz, but that move was later reversed over the weekend, leaving the market still in relatively bearish territory versus March and early April. On the daily chart, she highlights a possible head-and-shoulders pattern near the highs, though she says the pattern has only partially played out so far. …
Crude is tactically at a decision zone: lose 76 and the chart likely opens to a deeper washout, but regain 88-93 and a relief rally can extend quickly.
Over the coming weeks, crude likely stays headline-sensitive until price confirms one side of the 76/88-93 range; sustained acceptance above the upper band would shift the market into a new bullish leg, while repeated failure there keeps the bias fragile.
The longer-run setup is a regime where geopolitical supply risk can still reprice oil violently, but the durable trend will be determined by whether crude can hold and build above multi-year resistance bands.
Price action is more reliable than headlines in crude oil right now.
The speaker explicitly says price action remains the more reliable leader across markets, especially crude oil.
The 88-93 zone is a major long-term resistance barrier in crude oil.
She says this was the first barrier and that a break above it changes the forecast regime.
A break below 76 would extend crude oil down toward 67.
She ties a breakdown of 76 to a full measured downside toward 67 and says it aligns with prior support/resistance.
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