The speaker argues that crude oil is still trading back toward pre-war levels, with WTI and Brent both weakening as war-risk premiums fade. He uses weekly and daily momentum plus Fibonacci retracement levels to frame the move as a broader downtrend, while noting oversold conditions could trigger a short-term bounce.
Watch on YouTube ›Get the market thesis, key claims, assets, contradictions, and follow-up questions from any financial video — then unlock a version personalized to your portfolio, watchlist, and favorite speakers.
Raan Hilal, speaking as a market analyst for Forex.com from Dubai, says crude oil prices are reverting toward pre-war levels as the geopolitical risk premium compresses and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers. His core view is that the dominant structure remains bearish on the broader charts, even though the market is now stretched enough on the daily timeframe to allow for a tactical rebound. On WTI, he says price is trading below a key 73.50 barrier that lined up with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the broader swing from the 2022 highs through the 2026 lows and back to the 2026 highs. He treats that rejection as confirmation that the market has room to extend lower, with 78.6% retracement targets near 61.30 and a further support zone around 67 to 66.50, which he says has been respected since 2019. …
Tactically, crude looks stretched enough for a bounce, but the immediate setup still favors fading strength unless WTI can reclaim 73.50 and Brent can recover above 80. Support failure keeps downside risk active.
Over the next few weeks, the base case is a corrective consolidation inside a still-bearish trend, with oversold conditions allowing rallies that need to prove themselves above key resistance. If the dollar stays firm and risk premium continues to fade, the market likely grinds lower rather than reversing sharply.
Structurally, the transcript argues that oil is transitioning back into a lower-risk, pre-war pricing regime. The long-run implication is a broader pattern of lower highs unless geopolitics reintroduces a durable supply shock or the macro backdrop weakens the dollar and rate pressure.
WTI crude oil is trending lower with the next key downside target at 61.30, aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension level.
The speaker cites the 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the 2022 highs to 2026 lows to 2026 highs as the next projected target.
Brent crude oil is reversing back to pre-war levels and closing the breakout gap caused by the US Middle East conflict, with support near the 73.50-73.00 zone.
Speaker observes Brent closing the conflict-induced gap and returning to pre-conflict price levels, identifying a key support zone.
A sustained break below 67-66.50 in WTI would extend the downside target toward the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 61.30 for a higher-probability bounce setup.
Speaker outlines bearish continuation scenario: break below 67-66.50 opens path to 61.30, which would be a higher-probability recovery zone.
Unlock the full claims, asset map, scores, related transcripts, follow-up questions, and AI chat — shaped around your portfolio, watchlist, favorite speakers, and risks.
